Photo credit: www.cbc.ca
A crew member on the Estonian warship Sakala diligently monitors the waters of the Gulf of Finland, aiming a camera at a Panama-flagged oil tanker approximately 300 meters away. The tanker, which departed from a Russian port and is headed for Egypt, is believed to be part of what maritime experts refer to as Moscow’s shadow fleet. This fleet is typically composed of older vessels with unclear ownership that maneuver around international sanctions.
Recent tensions in the Baltic region, particularly following a series of mysterious incidents where undersea power and internet cables were severed, have heightened vigilance among the eight NATO nations bordering the Baltic Sea. Maritime operations involving Russia’s shadow fleet have now entered the spotlight.
“We are here to guard our waters,” emphasized Lt. Cmdr. Meelis Kants during an interview with CBC News on Wednesday, stating their commitment to investigate any ships deemed suspicious. “If ships are really doing something suspicious, we will stop them.”
Increased Patrols
The Sakala, functioning as a minehunter, is one of three Estonian vessels patrolling a critical area of the Baltic Sea, particularly near vulnerable underwater power cables linking Estonia and Finland. One of these cables was cut on December 25 of last year, along with four internet cables. This incident marked the third disruption in a span of just five weeks, raising alarms about potential Russian involvement.
In response to the rising concerns, both Estonia and Finland have intensified their naval patrols. NATO has also reinforced its presence in the region by deploying frigates, aircraft, and naval drones as part of the operation Baltic Sentry.
Investigations into these damaging incidents continue. Opinions are divided on whether the cable severances were accidental or deliberate acts of sabotage. Regardless, NATO nations are proactively monitoring the area to safeguard their critical infrastructure.
In the course of their patrols, the Estonian navy is particularly attentive to any unusual activities, such as ships behaving erratically or deviating from established protocols concerning positioning and communication.
No Incidents Since Monitoring Increased
Over the past two months, the Sakala’s crew has scrutinized around 50 potentially suspicious situations, but upon examination, they have not identified any threats. For instance, they previously monitored a vessel that had something wrapped around its anchor, which turned out to be a harmless hose. They maintained communication with the vessel until the situation was cleared up, further illustrating their proactive approach.
“We don’t see anything suspicious happening, so that’s already good,” Kants remarked, adding, “But if we weren’t here, I don’t know what would happen.”
The Baltic Sea, stretching from St. Petersburg, Russia, to Denmark, is one of the globe’s busiest shipping routes, with 500 to 600 vessels navigating the Gulf of Finland each week. While their positions are easily tracked, the complexities of underwater activities compound the challenges in deterring threats to the subsea cables that lie beneath the surface.
Importance of Undersea Cables
These subsea cables, which collectively extend approximately 1.5 million kilometers across the world’s oceans, are essential to global communication, carrying 95 percent of the world’s data. Although about 150-200 cables are damaged annually due to a variety of factors—including anchoring mishaps, commercial fishing activities, and environmental occurrences like submarine landslides—the sequence of three incidents occurring in quick succession has sparked skepticism regarding their nature.
“Is it intentional or is it an accident? It’s difficult to answer,” said Capt. Johan-Elias Seljamaa, Estonia’s deputy naval commander. “But the fact is, prior to these recent incidents, there was no damage of such magnitude in these regions.”
In addition to the recent cable incidents, investigations revealed that a cable running between Lithuania and Sweden was mutilated on November 17, closely followed by the severing of a cable between Helsinki and Rostock the following day. Initial inquiries suggested that a Chinese vessel, the Yi Peng 3, which was transporting Russian fertilizer, could have been linked to these damages.
Though China’s cooperation initially permitted investigators from several European nations to board the vessel, Swedish officials later indicated that their request for a prosecutor to conduct an onboard investigation was disregarded. The vessel subsequently continued its journey to Egypt.
Anchor Claims in Question
Following the cable severance on December 25, Finnish authorities detained the Eagle S, another oil tanker suspected of ties to Russia’s shadow fleet. Finnish law enforcement reported that an anchor recovered from the site was suspected of having caused damage by being dragged across approximately 100 kilometers of seabed.
Capt. Seljamaa noted that the dynamics of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland have shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, highlighting the increased presence of older ships with less experienced crews. He expressed skepticism about the feasibility of an anchor being dragged such a distance without detection.
“I don’t believe that you couldn’t feel it or detect it,” he stated, echoing concerns about operational practices among these vessels.
In light of these developments, Russia has dismissed allegations of sabotage, branding them as “ridiculous,” especially in the context of the Nord Stream pipeline explosions that occurred in 2022. Unofficial reports suggest that Ukrainian nationals were responsible for the explosions, although details remain murky.
In the wake of that incident, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, asserted that Western complicity allowed Russia to act freely in targeting undersea communications.
Ongoing Concerns
After the recent cable severances, the European Union characterized the incidents as part of a broader pattern of attacks on critical infrastructure. However, recent reports from the Washington Post and The Associated Press have raised doubts regarding the deliberate nature of the damage, suggesting it may have been accidental rather than intentional.
In January, damage to another cable linking Latvia and Sweden prompted investigations into a Bulgarian vessel, which Swedish officials concluded was not involved in any sabotage.
In a separate incident last week, Russia reported that one of its cables was broken due to what officials described as an “external impact.”
Within the Sakala, crew members remain cautious in their statements, refraining from directly implicating Russia in the severing of cables while acknowledging the threat it poses. They maintain that any suspicious behavior from ships that do not heed communication efforts would elicit a robust response, including the possible use of force.
However, naval analyst Michael Plunkett from Janes reminds us that while identifying potential threats is one challenge, taking action in international waters elevates the complexity of the response. “Are they able to stop it? Are they able to board it? If it’s in international waters, then they are on some fairly shaky legal ground,” he commented.
Despite these hurdles, the enhanced patrols send a clear message: NATO is aware of potential threats and intends to deter overt acts of sabotage.
Estonian navy officials assert that there has been no suspicious activity since they stepped up patrolling, yet they emphasize their readiness to respond to any significant dangers that may arise.
Source
www.cbc.ca