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As the federal election approaches its conclusion on Monday, urban seats in Manitoba are expected to witness closely contested races.
Political analyst Christopher Adams from the University of Manitoba observes that polling data from a few months prior indicated a shift, with several Liberal-held seats in Winnipeg anticipated to transition to the Conservative party.
However, recent trends show a decline in support for the NDP, coupled with a resurgence for the Liberals, prompting a reevaluation of expectations in various constituencies.
According to Adams, this shift also suggests that incumbent New Democrats, such as Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre and Niki Ashton in northern Manitoba, might face significant challenges in their respective campaigns.
A key riding garnering attention is Winnipeg South, often regarded as a bellwether seat.
This constituency has consistently elected a representative from the governing party in every election since 1988.
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The sitting MP, Liberal cabinet minister Terry Duguid, has held the Winnipeg South seat since 2015 and is contending against former provincial cabinet minister Janice Morley-Lecomte of the Conservatives and Joanne Bjornson from the NDP.
“As I’ve often stated, the fate of Winnipeg South often reflects the nation’s political mood,” commented Adams, who teaches political studies.
Several races this election cycle will feature rematches from previous contests.
In Elmwood-Transcona, Leila Dance claimed a recent byelection victory for the NDP, while Conservative Colin Reynolds, who lost by a narrow margin of 1,100 votes, is vying for the seat again, alongside Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre.
In Winnipeg West, Conservative incumbent Marty Morantz will face off against Liberal Doug Eyolfson again, after Morantz won by fewer than 500 votes in the last election. Avery Selby-Lyons represents the NDP in this contest.
Nationally low polling numbers for the NDP pose an obstacle for Ashton who has served the northern riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski since 2008. She is challenged by Liberal candidate Rebecca Chartrand, who narrowly missed victory in 2015.
“The Liberals are fielding a strong candidate… she stands a decent chance to secure the seat,” Adams noted.
Joining the race in this riding is Lachlan De Nardi for the Conservatives.
Another notable change is observed in St. Boniface-St. Vital, where former Liberal cabinet minister Dan Vandal will not be seeking reelection, opening the door for new candidates. This seat has historically alternated between Liberal and Conservative representation.
Additionally, Conservative Larry Maguire’s decision not to run again in Brandon-Souris marks a vacancy in what has been a longstanding Conservative stronghold in rural southern Manitoba.
Source
globalnews.ca