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As the number of Indian asylum seekers crossing into the United States continues to rise, especially following a recent surge at the US-Mexico border, the Biden administration has identified roughly 18,000 Indian nationals believed to have entered the country illegally. This has coincided with a commitment from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to repatriate these nationals and tackle human trafficking, particularly stressing the vulnerabilities faced by Indian migrants who are often drawn by the promise of a better future.
Recent research from Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur at Johns Hopkins University explores the complex landscape of undocumented Indian immigrants, highlighting their demographics, methods of entry, and changing patterns over time.
Estimating the Number of Undocumented Indians
Undocumented immigrants represent about 3% of the total US population, with a significant 22% of the foreign-born demographic classified as unauthorized. However, estimates regarding the number of undocumented Indians remain highly variable, complicating an accurate understanding of their presence in the US.
For instance, the Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies of New York suggest around 700,000 undocumented individuals from India as of 2022, making them the third-largest immigrant group, following those from Mexico and El Salvador. In contrast, the Migration Policy Institute estimates the number at 375,000, positioning India fifth among the source countries for undocumented immigrants. Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security reports just 220,000 unauthorized Indians, indicating substantial discrepancies in the available data.
A Decline in Numbers Despite Recent Trends
Interestingly, undocumented Indian migrants form a relatively small portion of the overall unauthorized immigrant population in the US. If earlier estimates from Pew and CMS are valid, they would suggest that nearly one in four Indian immigrants is undocumented, a figure that seems unlikely according to migration trends. The undocumented Indian population has reportedly dropped by 60% from its peak of 560,000 in 2016 to 220,000 in 2022. This decline could be attributed to various factors, including migrants securing legal status or returning home amid economic challenges intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, these estimates do not capture a marked increase in border encounters that have occurred in 2023, suggesting the actual number of undocumented Indians may now be above previous figures. US border data indicates no significant increase in the overall undocumented Indian population between fiscal years 2020 and 2022, despite a steady visa overstay rate of 1.5% since 2016.
Shifting Migration Routes
The primary land borders for migrant crossings in the United States are to the south, along the borders with Mexico, and to the north, with Canada. Historically, encounters involving Indian migrants at these borders were minimal prior to 2010. However, nearly all encounters now take place at the US-Mexico border, with recent data from fiscal year 2024 indicating a surprising 36% of crossings occurring at the northern border, a significant rise from just 4% the prior year. This shift is attributed to shorter visitor visa processing times in Canada, making it an increasingly accessible route for migrants.
The trends mirror broader patterns, indicating a surge in migration to the US since President Biden’s election, alongside an uptick in overall border encounters.
Distribution of Unauthorized Indians in the US
The demographics of unauthorized Indians correlate with established Indian immigrant populations, predominantly found in states such as California, Texas, New Jersey, and New York. These regions likely provide both established communities and job opportunities in ethnic businesses, making them favorable locations for undocumented immigrants aiming for economic stability.
The Profile of Indian Asylum Seekers
Indian nationals seeking asylum in the United States have seen an increase in applications, particularly from Punjabi speakers. The US immigration system facilitates a process for those who fear persecution, resulting in a notable rise in claims among the Indian community. Recent data reflects a significant jump in asylum requests, with numbers surging from approximately 5,000 in 2021 to over 51,000 in 2023, a trend also mirrored in countries such as Canada and Australia.
While some view this increase as indicative of rising persecution in India, it is essential to consider the motivations behind these claims. Many asylum seekers appear to be motivated more by economic aspirations rather than genuine fear of persecution, reflecting a trend of economic migrants who can afford the high associated costs of migration.
Factors Driving Illegal Migration
Indian migration patterns are deeply rooted in historical contexts, with Punjab and Gujarat emerging as key regions; both states are relatively affluent within India. The aspiration for better living standards fueled by remittances has spurred continued interest in migration, despite the risks and challenges posed by illegal entry into the US.
Deportation Statistics for Indian Nationals
According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, between 2009 and 2024, approximately 16,000 Indians have been deported from the US. The annual rates have varied significantly, with the highest levels observed during the Trump administration, and notable spikes in deportations occurring between FY 2023 and 2024. The current landscape continues to evolve with changing immigration policies, reflecting broader trends in global migration.
Source
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