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An Israeli airstrike in suburban Beirut that reportedly targeted a senior Hezbollah commander has sparked significant criticism within Lebanon. However, many analysts believe it is unlikely to lead to major military retaliation from Hezbollah.
The airstrike occurred in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut, which contains both residential and commercial structures, as well as notable Hezbollah operational facilities. Fuad Shukr, a prominent commander within the organization, was believed to be the main target of the attack.
According to Lebanon’s Health Minister, Firas Abiad, numerous injuries were reported, and at least one other individual was confirmed dead alongside Shukr.
The Israeli military indicated that the operation aimed to eliminate Shukr due to his involvement in a July 27 rocket attack that resulted in the deaths of 12 individuals in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah has denied any role in that incident.
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Israeli forces confirmed the airstrike targeting a Hezbollah commander responsible for the tragic weekend incident that claimed the lives of children. Despite Hezbollah’s denial of involvement, expert reporter Irris Makler discusses the implications of these tensions.
Mark Schwartz, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant-general with experience as a security coordinator for the U.S. in the region, expressed skepticism regarding an escalation of conflict following the airstrike. He believes that a significant increase in hostilities is not strategically beneficial for Lebanese Hezbollah.
“After such incidents, we can expect a lot of inflammatory language, but that shouldn’t translate into larger military actions,” Schwartz shared in a recent interview.
Similarly, Peter G. Bates, a retired Canadian foreign service officer, noted that while Hezbollah may wish to maintain an underlying level of conflict without escalating to warfare, the risk of a response is still present.
Concerns About Potential Escalation
Gershon Baskin, who heads the Middle East division at the International Communities Organisation based in the U.K., echoed these sentiments, suggesting that the current situation does not favor further escalation by either side.
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A series of skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah has marked a notable intensification of tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border since October 7. This coincides with negotiations between Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. over a potential ceasefire in Gaza. Baskin noted that while both sides may seek to avoid escalation, unexpected events could lead to unintended consequences.
“Once the escalation cycle begins, it can spiral out of control rapidly,” he warned, illustrating this point with recent events in the region.
Baskin recalled an incident where a rocket struck a soccer field, emphasizing that if further attacks occur—particularly if they result in civilian casualties—this could lead to a significant escalation of hostilities between the two parties.
In response to the Israeli airstrike, Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib stated that the government had condemned the attack and would seek intervention from the United Nations. He expressed hopes that any counteractions taken by Hezbollah would be measured and would not exacerbate the already volatile situation.
Hezbollah official Ali Ammar condemned the airstrike as a reckless act, stressing that Israel will eventually face repercussions for its aggression.
Israeli Military Claims Successful Operation Against Shukr
In the aftermath of the airstrike, the Israel Defense Forces announced that Fuad Shukr had been killed during the operation. Hezbollah has not yet confirmed this claim.
Mark Schwartz indicated that Israel likely had a strong basis for attributing responsibility for the weekend attack to Shukr, which would justify their decision to execute the airstrike.
Moreover, Schwartz speculated that if Shukr were alive, Israel would likely attempt to target him again in the future.
Source
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