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As voters in Ontario prepare to cast their ballots in the federal election on Monday, they understand that their decisions will influence more than one-third of the ridings in Canada. The upcoming election is pivotal, with candidates contesting 343 ridings across the country, including 122 in Ontario.
In the context of the election, the suburbs surrounding Toronto are viewed as crucial battlegrounds for all political parties striving for power. Historically, the Liberal party has garnered substantial support in this area, achieving near-total sweeps in past elections.
Conversely, the Conservative party has consistently secured strong support in rural regions of Ontario, while the NDP has found its footing in the northern parts of the province and areas with significant union presence, particularly in western Ontario. The Green Party has even succeeded in maintaining representation in places like Kitchener Centre.
Heading into the election, recent polling data indicates a competitive environment, marked by a lead for the Liberals in Ontario. An Ipsos Global Affairs poll from the final week of the campaign reported Liberals at 44 percent, compared to the Conservatives at 36 percent.
The NDP trails with 13 percent, followed by the People’s Party at four percent and the Green Party at two percent. Nationally, the Liberals hold 41 percent, with the Conservatives just three points behind, although this difference falls within the poll’s margin of error.
During the previous election in 2021, Ontario’s popular vote was closely contested, resulting in the Liberals capturing 39 percent of the votes while the Conservatives secured 35 percent. However, the seat distribution significantly favored the Liberals, who won 78 seats compared to the Conservatives’ 37 and the NDP’s five.
The electoral landscape has evolved since 2021, with the addition of five new ridings across Canada; Ontario has also seen shifts in existing riding boundaries and the creation of one new seat. These changes could impact how votes translate into wins on election night.
Advance polling data from Elections Canada indicates that early voting in Ontario exceeded 2.8 million, reflecting an increase of over 560,000 compared to the advance turnout in 2021.
The Toronto area and the surrounding 905 suburbs are often regarded as critical to electoral success, presenting some of the province’s most fiercely contested ridings. While the Liberals have enjoyed considerable success there since 2015, many of these regions previously leaned toward Conservative representatives. Presently, most suburban areas in Toronto are governed by Progressive Conservative officials at the provincial level.
Throughout the campaign, both Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have made stops in various Ontario ridings. Carney has focused on Windsor, Scarborough, and Cambridge, while Poilievre has drawn large crowds in Vaughan, Kingston, and Brampton.
Polling stations in Ontario will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. on Monday, marking a significant day in Canada’s political landscape.
Source
globalnews.ca