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Bangladesh and Pakistan Warm Ties Amidst Changing Political Landscape

In a surprising turn of events, Bangladesh’s recent political upheaval has paved the way for an unexpected rapprochement with Pakistan, a nation long viewed as an adversary. The changing dynamics occur against the backdrop of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ousting last year and a subsequent shift in diplomatic relations.

In February, Bangladesh marked a historic milestone by importing 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan, initiating the first direct trade between the two countries in decades. This act has signified a thaw in relations, as both nations have also reinstated direct flights, revitalized military ties, and simplified visa processes, alongside discussions on cooperative security efforts.

The roots of the tension between Bangladesh and Pakistan date back to 1971, when Bangladesh was known as East Pakistan and sought independence from the West Pakistani government. The conflict, supported by India’s military intervention, resulted in the formation of an independent Bangladesh, but it left scars that have endured through decades of strained ties.

Despite a brief period of amiable relations between 2001 and 2006, when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami coalition governed, ties soured again under Hasina’s leadership from 2009 onward, as she cultivated closer relations with India and distanced herself from Pakistan. However, with her recent flight to India amidst mass protests, the landscape is shifting once more.

Humayun Kabir, a former senior diplomat from Bangladesh, observes that for the last 15 years, the bilateral relationship has been fraught with difficulties but is now evolving towards a more amicable state typical of neighbors.

The implications of this warming relationship are being closely monitored, particularly by India, which has its own complicated history with Pakistan. Relations between Dhaka and Delhi have grown tense since Hasina’s departure, particularly given India’s refusal to heed Bangladesh’s requests to extradite her due to various indictments against her, which she denies.

Some analysts posit that the emerging alliance between Bangladesh and Pakistan is primarily strategic. Ayesha Siddiqa, a prominent Pakistani academic, asserts that both nations are looking to reassert their influence in the region in light of India’s dominance.

Recent diplomatic engagements have also strengthened military relations. A high-level military delegation from Bangladesh visited Pakistan in January, engaging in discussions with Pakistan’s army chief while the Bangladeshi navy took part in a multinational maritime exercise near Karachi in February.

Veena Sikri, who served as India’s high commissioner to Bangladesh from 2003 to 2006, describes the evolving ties as reminiscent of past challenges. During her tenure, concerns were raised about the potential training of Indian insurgents in Bangladesh with alleged support from Pakistan’s intelligence apparatus.

Bangladesh’s leadership has dismissively responded to claims of Pakistani involvement in facilitating insurgent activities, characterizing such reports as unfounded. Despite this, India’s security concerns remain heightened, particularly regarding the revival of military ties between Dhaka and Islamabad.

Beyond these military considerations, discussions from both sides indicate a need to address the legacies of the 1971 conflict. Bangladesh has consistently called for a formal apology from Pakistan for the atrocities committed during the war, a request that has thus far been ignored by Islamabad.

As both nations contemplate potential economic collaboration, experts have noted that bilateral trade is currently below $700 million, leaning heavily in favor of Pakistan. Economists argue that capitalizing on trade could prove beneficial; Pakistan’s large population offers a viable market for Bangladeshi exports.

Nevertheless, existing trade barriers, such as steep tariffs and logistical challenges, continue to impede improvement. Experts like Sabrin Beg, who teaches economics at the University of Delaware, suggest that easing political tensions can open routes for better trade relations.

Looking ahead, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is scheduled to visit Dhaka in April, which could provide an opportunity to address ongoing issues. With Bangladesh set to conduct general elections later this year, the resulting political landscape may significantly influence its foreign policy direction.

Given the strategic implications of a stable Bangladesh for India’s northeastern regions, the developments between Dhaka and Islamabad remain a critical concern for Delhi’s foreign policy architects as regional diplomatic ties continue to evolve.

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