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A faction within the Conservative Party is speculating about the motivations of Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, with some referring to him humorously as “Nigel’s chancellor.” This lighthearted moniker underscores deeper concerns about the party’s precarious situation and the possibility of an electoral alliance with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which some see as a desperate move to consolidate right-wing support.
Kemi Badenoch, the party leader, has dismissed the idea of collaborating with Farage, highlighting his stated intentions to “destroy” the Conservative Party. Nevertheless, the ongoing uncertainties surrounding her leadership have led to persistent whispers about her ability to guide the party out of its current predicament.
Tensions heightened recently when Jenrick, despite a previous leadership bid that ended in defeat, indicated in a private meeting his intention to avoid competition between the Tories and Reform UK at the upcoming elections. His comments drew sharp criticism from Labour leader Keir Starmer during a parliamentary session, where Starmer mockingly stated that Farage, seated nearby, would easily overshadow the Conservatives.
As the local elections approach, optimism for the Tories is scarce. Polling indicates that they are trailing behind both Reform and Labour, while internal support for Badenoch appears muted among Conservative MPs, despite the party’s history of swiftly replacing leaders when facing adversity.
In 2024, YouGov polling has consistently placed the Conservatives in third position, with a recent survey showing that a notable 20% of their previous voters have shifted allegiance to Reform UK. In contrast, Labour has only lost 11% of their vote share to Farage’s party.
Rather than outright despair, a sense of resignation permeates the ranks of Conservative MPs. One member remarked on the unrealistic expectations for a rapid recovery following a deeply unfavorable electoral outcome, while others voiced concerns about Badenoch’s capability to effectively counteract Farage’s influence and the need for robust policies to reclaim lost support.
The Conservative Party is also grappling with internal challenges, including staff reductions and dwindling financial support as donors appear to be favoring Reform UK over the traditional party. Some seasoned Conservatives believe that those surrounding Badenoch may not fully grasp the severity of the situation, warning that Farage’s political impact is not fleeting.
Additionally, reports indicate that Reform UK has been revitalized by an influx of new members and has witnessed defections of Tory councillors, signaling a worrying trend for the Conservatives. One former cabinet member noted a significant loss of constituency association members, complicating the party’s operational capabilities.
As the local elections draw near, the Conservatives are tasked with protecting numerous seats won during the peak of Boris Johnson’s tenure. They currently control 19 out of 23 authorities in the upcoming elections, yet Reform UK is poised to capitalize on this vulnerability, particularly in regions like the East Midlands and northern England.
While the Conservatives acknowledge that Reform’s electoral performance may be somewhat limited by delays in key areas, there is cautious optimism within some party circles. Some strategists argue that a modest success for Reform could expose its vulnerabilities under public scrutiny.
Conversely, there is a growing sentiment that it is essential to illustrate the extent of limits to Farage’s political ascent. Many within the party believe that if Reform UK falters, it may prompt a reevaluation of their perceived momentum.
For the moment, Conservative MPs appear resigned to facing the consequences of an unfriendly electoral climate and are hopeful that as the next general election approaches, the political landscape may shift in their favor.
“While we recognize the need to stay vigilant, we also understand that there is substantial time before the election, and it is plausible that Reform could be reaching its peak,” one MP noted. “Various unforeseen circumstances could influence their standing in the months ahead.”
Source
www.theguardian.com