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In the realm of local elections, determining success can be challenging, especially when multiple parties are anticipated to perform well in various regions. A useful method for assessing this is by examining historical performance—specifically the baseline set during the previous local elections in 2021. While many areas that participated in 2021 won’t be involved again until 2025, those elections featured some postponed from 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions, with normal schedules resuming just last year.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that some councils planned for elections this year have faced delays owing to local government reorganization. Consequently, voters in regions such as East and West Sussex, Essex, Thurrock, Hampshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Surrey, and the Isle of Wight will not be heading to the polls next week.
This upcoming election sees 1,641 council seats across 37 councils up for grabs, with 1,182 currently held by the Conservative Party. In the last local elections, the Conservatives enjoyed a prominent lead in national opinion polls, buoyed by perceptions of optimism linked to successful vaccine rollouts. At that time, it was undoubtedly a favorable night for the party.
In stark contrast, the mood going into this election is significantly less optimistic for the Conservatives. They have struggled with national polling since the last general election, and experts foresee substantial losses of both seats and councils for the party. Kemi Badenoch has openly acknowledged the challenges ahead, emphasizing the competition from emerging parties like Reform UK, along with the enduring threat from the Liberal Democrats, especially in southern constituencies.
The Liberal Democrats are keen to expand their influence, particularly in “middle England,” where they aim to maintain momentum against the Conservatives despite their absence from government.
On the other hand, Reform UK is venturing into largely uncharted territory this time around. Having fielded minimal candidates in 2021, the party is now contesting nearly every available seat. Predictions suggest it could take control of at least one council and secure hundreds of councillors—potentially leading the council election count. Achieving a notable share of the national vote would signify a significant step for Reform UK in solidifying its role in the political landscape.
For the Labour Party, this local election serves as a less intense litmus test. In 2021, Labour secured a mere 336 seats and governs only one council (Doncaster) within this election set. Consequently, even with losses anticipated, they are unlikely to suffer as severely as the Conservatives. In 2021, Labour’s projected national vote share was modest at 29%.
As in 2021, the spotlight will be on whether Labour can maintain its position against the challenges posed by Reform UK. Additionally, amid local elections, Labour faces a significant parliamentary byelection. Voters in Runcorn and Helsby will select a new MP, with forecasts indicating a tight race between Labour and Reform. The outcome of this contest could shape political narratives through the summer, outweighing its immediate effect on parliamentary composition.
The general election of 2024 highlighted the fragmentation of electoral politics and an inclination among voters to explore alternatives to traditional two-party offerings. Given continuing fragmentation on both the left and right, results from the 2025 local elections are expected to mirror the shifting electoral preferences that have emerged since 2021, as well as the changes after the recent general election. In this broad context, understanding local election outcomes begins with acknowledging the baseline.
Source
www.theguardian.com