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The Diplomatic Opportunities of a Somber Occasion

World leaders are expected to convene on Saturday to honor a prominent figure whose influence extends far beyond his organizational reach, with a congregation larger than the populations of many nations.

While the primary purpose is to pay respects, the gathering may also serve as an unusual avenue for informal diplomacy.

This event represents one of the largest gatherings of heads of state since the farewell to the late Queen in 2022.

According to diplomats, there are no formal arrangements for meetings among leaders, as the occasion is solemn by nature.

“We want to respect our host’s sentiments,” remarked one European diplomat. “However, opportunities for casual interactions will certainly arise.”

These interactions could manifest as spontaneous discussions among leaders who find themselves “brushing by” each other during the ceremony.

Another official stated: “It’s a funeral. We are proceeding with caution.”

Attention will specifically be directed towards whether Presidents Trump and Zelensky take this occasion to engage in talks regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. They will be positioned in St. Peter’s Square according to an alphabetical arrangement by country.

This alphabetical seating means that the leaders of the United States and Ukraine might not sit adjacent to each other, as French remains the diplomatic language, potentially placing the U.S. president farther away from his Ukrainian counterpart.

Some diplomats suggest that this distance could be advantageous given the existing tensions, potentially preventing a scene similar to their contentious meeting in February.

There remains a possibility for both leaders to have a private conversation later in Rome. European nations are hopeful for this, although the likelihood remains uncertain. “If such a meeting occurs, it will be spontaneous,” noted one diplomat.

On Tuesday, Zelensky expressed his openness to a meeting with Trump in Rome, stating, “We are always ready to meet with our partners from the United States.”

The next day, Trump mentioned having “numerous meetings planned,” without specifying with whom. By Friday, Zelensky raised doubts about attending due to the latest Russian missile strikes impacting his travel agenda.

The cemetery of St. Peter’s Square will be the focal point for leaders—presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs—awaiting the commencement of the obsequies, presenting a significant opportunity for networking and dialogue on pressing global issues.

The trip to Rome could also facilitate unexpected encounters. With 170 delegations confirmed, including approximately 50 heads of state and 12 reigning monarchs, the potential for meetings at either of Rome’s airports upon arrival or departure is quite high.

While funerals can create unique diplomatic chances, they also carry inherent risks. Leaders may find themselves unexpectedly in the presence of rivals, particularly as politicians facing European travel restrictions can enter Vatican City, considered neutral territory. Notably, neither President Vladimir Putin of Russia nor President Xi Jinping of China is expected to attend.

The Unpredictable Nature of a Funeral Service

One of the most unpredictable incidents may arise during the service itself. Francis Campbell, who served as the British ambassador to the Holy See from 2005 to 2011, mentioned that during the funeral Mass, there is a moment of peace where attendees are encouraged to greet one another, which could lead to leaders finding themselves shaking hands with individuals they might prefer to avoid. “You cannot escape it,” he said, emphasizing the need for participation in the religious proceedings.

At Pope John Paul II’s funeral in 2005, the then Prince of Wales unexpectedly shook hands with President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, an encounter that left his office “caught by surprise.”

Funerals also present challenges for leaders under the gaze of thousands of mourners. At the same ceremony in 2005, George Bush faced boos from attendees when his face appeared on a screen, reflecting dissent regarding his policies in Iraq.

The Concept of Working Funerals

Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson is recognized for coining the term “a good working funeral” in context with the service for Winston Churchill in 1965. Geoff Berridge, Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Leicester University, elaborated on the substantial value of such gatherings.

“They allow heads of state to justify breaking existing schedules to discuss urgent issues without raising public expectations,” he outlined in his work on Diplomacy.

Recent years have seen numerous such occasions, including those for the late Queen, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and Ebrahim Raisi, the Iranian president.

However, the phenomenon of “working funerals” has also been met with satire. In the BBC comedy Yes, Prime Minister, the character Jim Hacker remarked that these occasions were “heaven sent” opportunities.

He pointed out that “dignified grief resonates well with the electorate, especially when shared by global leaders.” Hacker illustrated that working funerals are preferably less predictable than formal summits, offering the potential for genuine discussions free from high expectations.

Source
www.bbc.com