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The moment we’ve all been waiting for is upon us: the final predictions for the 2025 Oscars are here.
Gold Derby has tracked the Oscar race since July, when the film Sing Sing was initially favored to win Best Picture. However, it ended up with only three nominations: Best Actor for Colman Domingo, Best Song for “Like a Bird,” and Best Adapted Screenplay.
In the months that followed, Anora steadily held the top position in our rankings, with a brief swap when The Brutalist surged following its success at the Golden Globes. However, following wins at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild, Anora reclaimed its lead. Meanwhile, Conclave has climbed to its highest ranking yet, sitting at No. 2 after significant accolades at both the BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Both Anora, the story of a Brooklyn sex worker who marries a Russian oligarch’s son, and The Brutalist, which follows a Holocaust survivor striving for the American Dream, are projected to snag three Academy Awards each. Predictions indicate that Anora will win Best Picture, Best Director for Sean Baker, and Best Original Screenplay, while The Brutalist is tipped to take home Best Actor for Adrien Brody, along with awards for Best Cinematography and Best Score.
Other contenders are forecasted to secure two awards each, including Conclave (for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing), The Substance (Best Actress for Demi Moore and Best Makeup & Hairstyling), Emilia Pérez (Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña and Best Song with “El Mal”), and Wicked (for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design). Furthermore, Dune: Part Two is expected to excel in the technical categories, including Best Sound and Best Visual Effects.
The Oscar odds provided by Gold Derby are the result of insights from over 10,700 contributors, encompassing specialists from prominent media outlets, our award-focused editors, and a broad user base actively participating in predictions. The 97th Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, are set for March 2.
Below is a concise overview of Gold Derby’s final predictions for winners at the 2025 Oscars across all 23 categories, reflecting the latest updates as of February 27. For a more in-depth look at how predictions have evolved, feel free to check our previous updates from January 24 and beyond. Engage with the ongoing awards conversation by visiting our charts and contributing to discussion forums.
BEST PICTURE
1. Anora — 5/1
2. Conclave — 6/1
3. The Brutalist — 7/1
4. A Complete Unknown — 9/1
5. Wicked — 9/1
6. Emilia Pérez — 11/1
7. The Substance — 23/2
8. I’m Still Here — 12/1
9. Dune: Part Two — 15/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sean Baker (Anora) — 7/4
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 16/5
3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 11/2
4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 13/2
5. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 15/2
BEST ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 2/1
2. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 82/25
3. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 37/10
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 19/2
BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 9/5
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 3/1
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 5/1
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 15/2
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 17/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) — 3/2
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 4/1
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 11/2
4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 13/2
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 29/20
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 5/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 5/1
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 13/2
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 7/1
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Conclave — 3/2
2. A Complete Unknown — 9/2
3. Nickel Boys — 11/2
4. Sing Sing — 13/2
5. Emilia Pérez — 7/1
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anora — 2/1
2. A Real Pain — 10/3
3. The Substance — 9/2
4. The Brutalist — 6/1
5. September 5 — 9/1
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist — 31/20
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Dune: Part Two — 5/1
4. Maria — 13/2
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked — 29/20
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Conclave — 11/2
4. Gladiator II — 13/2
5. A Complete Unknown — 15/2
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Conclave — 9/5
2. Anora — 71/20
3. The Brutalist — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 7/1
5. Wicked — 15/2
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Substance — 31/20
2. Wicked — 9/2
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Wicked — 31/20
2. The Brutalist — 4/1
3. Dune: Part Two — 11/2
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/2
BEST SCORE
1. The Brutalist — 17/10
2. Conclave — 18/5
3. The Wild Robot — 5/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. Wicked — 8/1
BEST SONG
1. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 7/4
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 19/5
3. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 11/2
4. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 13/2
BEST SOUND
1. Dune: Part Two — 11/5
2. Wicked — 31/10
3. A Complete Unknown — 18/5
4. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
5. The Wild Robot — 8/1
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune: Part Two — 3/2
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 9/2
3. Wicked — 5/1
4. Better Man — 6/1
5. Alien: Romulus — 17/2
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Wild Robot — 7/4
2. Flow — 16/5
3. Inside Out 2 — 11/2
4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 7/1
5. Memoir of a Snail — 8/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. No Other Land — 41/20
2. Porcelain War — 10/3
3. Sugarcane — 9/2
4. Black Box Diaries — 13/2
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 7/1
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. I’m Still Here — 19/10
2. Emilia Pérez — 31/10
3. Flow — 11/2
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
5. The Girl with the Needle — 17/2
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. “Beautiful Men” — 31/10
2. “Yuck!” — 10/3
3. “Wander to Wonder” — 19/5
4. “Magic Candies” — 9/2
5. “In the Shadow of the Cypress” — 6/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. “I Am Ready, Warden” — 49/20
2. “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” — 31/10
3. “Incident” — 37/10
4. “Death by Numbers” — 6/1
5. “Instruments of a Beating Heart” — 8/1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” — 5/2
2. “A Lien” — 59/20
3. “Anuja” — 9/2
4. “I’m Not a Robot” — 6/1
5. “The Last Ranger” — 13/2
Source
www.goldderby.com