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Syria: Rebel Forces Intensify Offensive Amid Humanitarian Crisis

Rebel forces continue to advance southward in Syria, tightening their grip on the central city of Homs. As the offensive escalates, humanitarian organizations are raising concerns about the deteriorating conditions for civilians caught in the violence.

The developments coincide with Russia’s embassy in Damascus advising its citizens to exit Syria using commercial flights, according to reports from the TASS state news agency.

The previous day heralded a significant change in the conflict when pro-government troops were expelled from Hama, the country’s fourth-largest city. This victory marked a significant advancement for rebel factions, following a rapid offensive across northern Syria, and dealt a severe blow to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and its Russian and Iranian backers.

Should the insurgent groups capture Homs, they could effectively sever the connection between Damascus and the coastal region, a key stronghold for Assad’s Alawite sect and a location for Russian maritime and aerial facilities.

“The battle for Homs is pivotal and will determine Syria’s leadership,” stated Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K.-based opposition monitoring group.

In another troubling development for the Assad regime, a U.S.-backed coalition, primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, seized Deir Al-Zor, the government’s main presence in the expansive eastern desert region of Syria. This marked the third major city relinquished by Assad’s forces within a single week, following the losses of Aleppo and Hama.

The ongoing violence has led to the displacement of approximately 280,000 individuals since hostilities intensified in late November, as reported by the United Nations.

“If the current pace of conflict persists, we are projecting that around 1.5 million people will be uprooted and in need of our assistance,” said Samer AbdelJaber, head of emergency coordination for the World Food Programme, during a press conference in Geneva.

After a long period of stagnation, the rebels have aggressively expanded from their last stronghold in northwestern Idlib, achieving the most rapid military progress seen in years since the civil war erupted over a decade ago.

The insurgents, including fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—which has been designated as a terrorist group by Canada since 2013—report successful control of the towns of Talbiseh and Rastan. HTS, which distanced itself from al-Qaeda in 2016, asserts it poses no threat to Western nations and has endeavored to rebrand itself as a legitimate alternative to the Assad regime.

Children ‘Paying the Heaviest Price’

Nonprofits like Save the Children have expressed alarm regarding the impact of the ongoing conflict on children, who have already endured the traumas of 13 years of war, compounded by economic crises and a recent catastrophic earthquake affecting nearly 40% of the population.

The organization reported that in the past week alone, at least 69 civilians, including 26 children and 11 women, were killed in northwest Syria. Additionally, over 228 people were injured, comprising 88 children and 53 women.

Rasha Muhrez, the Syrian program director for Save the Children, revealed heartbreaking accounts of families fleeing the violence with nowhere to seek refuge, often left to sleep in the streets for several nights. Some schools have been repurposed as shelters, but the capacity is grossly insufficient.

“It’s the middle of winter and the school year. Ultimately, children are bearing the brunt of this crisis,” Muhrez conveyed from Amman, Jordan.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the pressing need for all parties involved to pursue serious dialogues aimed at resolving the long-standing crisis, underscoring the risks civilians face amid intensified combat.

Over 120 schools in Raqqa are currently serving as shelters for around 35,000 individuals, highlighting the urgent need for substantial humanitarian support. However, aid organizations have reported raising less than a third of the $4 billion required to sustain 2024 operations before the recent surge in violence.

Earlier this month, the UN’s humanitarian office revealed that a devastating 80% cut in food rations in Syria was necessitated by severe funding shortages.

“The situation was already dire prior to this escalation, creating a compounded crisis. This underscores the critical necessity for increased funding,” AbdelJaber commented.

Jordan Closes Border with Syria

On the same day, Jordan shut its sole passenger and commercial border crossing into Syria, known as the Jaber crossing, as declared by the Jordanian interior ministry. While Jordanian citizens and vehicles can re-enter, no others are permitted to cross into Syria.

A source from the Syrian army informed Reuters that armed groups had assaulted Syrian military positions at the Nassib border crossing into Jordan shortly after its closure.

Homs Empties as Residents Flee

Reports indicate a mass exodus from Homs, with the city’s primary security offices abandoned as members deserted their posts.

The SOHR noted thousands of residents began fleeing Homs late Thursday, moving towards the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus.

Wasim Marouh, a resident of Homs, described most commercial streets as deserted and stated that pro-government militia were patrolling the area.

In response to the ongoing turmoil, a rebel operations room called for a public uprising from Homs residents, declaring, “Your time has come.”

Additionally, Russian forces conducted airstrikes that destroyed the Rastan bridge on the M5 highway, a critical route to Homs, as a preventive measure against rebel advancement. Meanwhile, the Syrian military mobilized reinforcements to fortify positions around Homs.

While Assad has depended on Russian and Iranian military support throughout the civil war, their focus has shifted recently due to Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and Hezbollah has faced heavy losses after recent confrontations in southern Lebanon.

A senior Iranian official indicated that Tehran may need to dispatch additional military resources, including missiles and drones, alongside more military advisors to Syria. Hezbollah has reportedly sent a limited number of “supervising forces” from Lebanon to assist in countering the rebel advances.

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