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Red States Report Less Learning Loss Compared to Blue States

The educational landscape in the United States has revealed significant disparities in learning recovery post-pandemic, particularly when comparing states based on their political affiliations. The latest data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) illustrates a concerning trend: states that leaned heavily in favor of Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential election experienced a steeper decline in student performance than their red state counterparts.

This divergence in educational outcomes can be traced back to the varying responses to COVID-19, leading to differing levels of school closures and remote learning policies. Some states opted for extended closures, while others reopened their doors relatively quickly, with the decisions often reflecting the political leanings of the states rather than the health risks posed by the virus.

To analyze the impact of these policies on student learning, we categorized states based on the proportion of the two-party vote received by Harris and compared the adjusted NAEP scores from spring 2019 through 2024 across red, blue, and purple states. The analysis focuses on 4th- and 8th-grade outcomes in reading and math, taking demographics into account through data refined by the Urban Institute.

State Categories

States were classified into three groups based on their electoral outcomes in the 2024 presidential election.

Red states
Blue states
Purple states

Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington

Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin

Findings

Overall, student performance in both reading and math remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels across all states, yet the extent of decline varies markedly. Students in blue states endured more substantial setbacks compared to their peers in red states, with purple states falling somewhere in between. These differences have been shown to be statistically significant, highlighting critical questions about the impacts of state policies during the pandemic.

Student Scores Slide Farthest in Blue States

Data indicates that from 2019 to 2024, students in blue states faced the steepest declines in average reading and math scores compared to those in red states. For instance, the once highest-performing 4th graders in blue states fell to the bottom of the rankings by 2024, while red states improved their standings. Similar trends were noted in 8th-grade scores, where the gap in performance between red and blue states has narrowed considerably.

Such findings raise questions about the policies enacted during the height of the pandemic. Extended school closures were likely the most significant factor affecting learning outcomes. Research consistently demonstrates that prolonged closures correlate with greater learning losses, but the role of social and emotional resources during this uncertain time cannot be overlooked.

In certain blue states, the influence of teachers’ unions played a crucial role in determining school operating procedures. In contrast, many red states benefited from right-to-work laws which may have enabled a more flexible response to the educational needs of students during the pandemic.

Another consideration is the rise of school choice. While its influence may be less clear, states that adopted policies supporting school choice may have experienced a different trajectory in student enrollment and performance, providing families with alternatives when public schools were shuttered.

In addition, the disparities in federal funding and the introduction of effective educational strategies, such as the science of reading, may also have played a role in shaping recovery trajectories among the states.

Conclusion

The findings outlined here provide a foundational understanding of how different state policies affected student learning during and after the pandemic. With significant declines still evident in standardized test scores, there remains an urgent need for further research to unpack the specific factors contributing to these trends. Policymakers must recognize the potential long-term educational consequences of their responses to public health crises in hopes of better balancing immediate health needs with the importance of maintaining educational continuity.

Michael Hartney is an associate professor of political science at Boston College and Paul E. Peterson is the Director of the Program on Education Policy and Governance at Harvard University.

Last Updated

February 13, 2025

Source
www.educationnext.org