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Reform UK Poised to Outpace Labour in Runcorn and Helsby Byelection, Poll Indicates, with Conservatives Falling Behind
Labour has nominated Karen Shore as its candidate for the forthcoming byelection in Runcorn and Helsby. Celebrating the decision, Keir Starmer remarked:
Karen Shore will be a strong advocate for the residents of Runcorn and Helsby.
Her local roots, along with her background as a teacher and elected councillor, equip her to offer a compelling voice in the House of Commons.
In the general election, Labour secured a notable majority of 14,696 votes in this Cheshire constituency, capturing 53% of the total votes. Reform UK followed with 18%, while the Conservatives trailed at 16%.
However, a new byelection poll released today, conducted by Lord Ashcroft, suggests that Reform UK may be positioned to take the lead. Established as a reputable pollster, Lord Ashcroft indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment that could render the Conservatives less relevant.
According to the Ashcroft poll summary:
Reform UK leads Labour with 40% support compared to 35%, while the Conservatives sit at just 10%. This marks a 20% swing from Labour to Reform since the general election.
When focusing solely on respondents who are certain they will vote, Reform UK’s advantage increases to 9 points (42% to 33%), reflecting a 22% shift since July.
While only 55% of voters who supported Labour in the last election claim they would definitely vote, 78% of those voting for Reform UK and 70% of Conservative voters express the same commitment. Consequently, Labour’s prospects hinge on rallying their past supporters to participate in the election.
Here are some key takeaways from the polling data:
The survey not only assessed voting preferences but also gauged sentiments about the government’s performance. Worryingly for Labour,.
Among Labour voters from the last election, disapproval of the government’s track record stands at 47%, just exceeding the 44% who approve. In terms of Starmer’s approval ratings among Labour supporters, 46% express disapproval while 47% approve. Additionally, 29% believe the government has performed “much worse” than anticipated.
Notably, voter recollection pinpoints cuts to winter fuel payments as the government’s most recognized policy effect, with 27% mentioning this specific issue unprompted. Other notable mentions included support for Ukraine (7%) and increased taxation (6%).
Immigration emerged as the primary concern for 34% of voters, outpacing the cost of living and economic issues, which garnered 30%.
There are some glimmers of hope for Labour, however.
Voters are more likely to predict Labour will win the byelection, with 44% believing so compared to just 26% for Reform UK. This trend is noteworthy, as perceived outcomes can sometimes serve as a more accurate reflection of eventual results than mere voting intentions.
It’s essential to approach all polling results with skepticism. Byelection polls can often appear misleading. The Ashcroft survey included 702 participants, a smaller cohort than typically seen in national polls, yet larger than the often-used sample sizes in byelection contexts. Both Reform UK and the Conservatives have yet to announce their candidates, and effective organizational efforts will be critical in byelections. Labour, despite its national unpopularity, is adept at mobilizing supporters; Reform UK finds itself starting from a less established position.
Labour is only trailing Reform by five points concerning likely voter turnout. A robust Labour campaign could bridge this gap, especially if Reform UK selects a less viable candidate.
Nevertheless, it is important to remember that byelection polling can sometimes accurately forecast outcomes. The results present no surprises for campaigners well-acquainted with public sentiment.
Small parties often capture byelection victories during periods of governmental dissatisfaction. Winning Runcorn and Helsby would not definitively indicate that Nigel Farage is on course for broader electoral success, as he claims. Conversely, should Labour succeed, Farage’s assertions would appear increasingly implausible.
If, however, Reform UK gains as indicated by these polls, it might send the Conservative party into disarray.
No 10 Responds to Russia’s Reaction to Ukraine Peace Proposal as ‘Vague’
Downing Street has characterized Russia’s response to the proposed US-brokered ceasefire in Ukraine as “vague.”
During a morning lobby briefing, a spokesperson was queried about Keir Starmer’s initiative for a virtual meeting of European and Commonwealth leaders aimed at discussing a “coalition of the willing” to bolster support for Ukraine.
The spokesperson remarked:
The prime minister’s intentions are clear.
I believe the elusive responses are emanating from Russia; the onus is on them now.
There exists a proposal, and in the meantime, we are collaborating with our global partners to identify effective pathways toward achieving a just and lasting peace.
No 10 Justifies Need for Welfare System Overhaul Amid Cabinet Discontent
Downing Street has refrained from commenting on allegations that a significant faction of the cabinet intends to pressure Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, to reconsider proposed cuts to disability benefits.
When asked about this during the Downing Street lobby briefing, the spokesperson adhered to standard operating procedures by declining to divulge details from the cabinet meeting earlier this week.
However, he expressed that the existing benefits structure would “keep more individuals ensnared in cycles of unemployment and inactivity” if it remains unchanged.
Unaltered, the current system that has been inherited would consume more taxpayer funds, relegating countless individuals to a life of unemployment and inactivity.
This state of affairs not only jeopardizes the economy but also affects individuals’ lives negatively. This is why the government is preparing to unveil plans to revamp the health and disability benefits framework to ensure it empowers those capable of work while safeguarding those who cannot, aligning welfare expenditures on a more sustainable trajectory to foster growth.
While No 10 has not dismissed the Bloomberg report, some government insiders have remarked that it does not accurately reflect their perspective.
Bridget Phillipson Advocates for Ban on Smartphones in Classrooms
Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, has expressed her desire to eliminate smartphones from all classroom settings.
As reported by Sky News, while addressing the annual conference of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) in Liverpool, Phillipson stated:
We recognize that much of the harm associated with smartphones and social media occurs beyond school boundaries.
Yet it is clear, as we all understand, that phones serve as distractions, disrupt learning, and negatively impact behavior.
They should not be allowed in schools, and the government firmly supports your efforts to eliminate phone distractions from classrooms.
I believe this should be the norm across all classrooms.
Phillipson emphasized that she has tasked officials with “monitoring the situation on the ground” regarding this issue, asserting that this is a government of substantive action, not superficial gestures.
Earlier this year, the Conservatives requested Phillipson to endorse an amendment to the children’s wellbeing and schools bill aimed at prohibiting smartphones in most schools across England through Year 11. Phillipson concurred that phones can remain out of the classroom but indicated that legislative action was unnecessary as most schools are already implementing such measures.
Momentum, the leftist faction of the Labour party, is urging supporters to contact Labour MPs to lobby against the government’s proposed reductions to the welfare state.
It has been reported that the Government plans to cut welfare spending by up to £6 billion.
If this is brought to a vote, MPs need to do what is right and oppose any welfare cuts.
Act now: https://t.co/rXaSJnyDDa pic.twitter.com/iwA5CPwAHw
— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) March 13, 2025
Reeves Announces Initiative to Enhance Defence Exports
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has declared what the Treasury is presenting as a £2 billion enhancement to defence exports.
She explained that the government plans to boost the direct lending capability of UK Export Finance for the defence sector. In practical terms, Treasury officials elaborated:
This increase will elevate UKEF’s lending ability from £8 billion to £10 billion, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of the UK’s defence industry. This will enable UK exporters to expand their operations through sales to international allies and strengthen supply chains.
UKEF’s direct lending program provides loans to foreign governments for procuring UK goods and services. In the fiscal year 2023/24, UKEF facilitated £8.8 billion in loans, guarantees, and insurance to promote UK exports, affecting 650 exporters of various sizes and supporting 41,000 jobs nationwide.
This initiative builds upon UKEF’s successful track record with the defence sector, which has recently included an £8.8 billion guarantee for exporting air defence systems to Poland and assistance for selling Typhoon jets to Qatar and ex-Royal Navy mine-hunting vessels to the Ukrainian Navy.
The Howard League for Penal Reform has commented on today’s report from the public accounts committee (see 9.58am), urging the government to consider reducing the prison population. Andrea Coomber, its chief executive, stated:
As of the end of January, nearly 70 prisons in England and Wales were overcrowded, while around 20 others were operating at 95% to 99% capacity. Such conditions have contributed to alarming rates of violence and self-harm within prisons.
The government has acknowledged that expanding prison infrastructure alone will not solve this crisis. Ultimately, policy reforms are essential to reduce the demand on a system that has been stretched beyond its limits for too long. This calls for immediate sentencing reforms, as well as reallocating funds earmarked for new prisons to develop a more effective and responsive probation service that focuses on reducing community crime.
This perspective was echoed by Damian Lyons Lowe, head of the Survation polling company, who remarked on the Runcorn and Helsby byelection polling (see 11.25am) on Bluesky.
@lordashcroft.bsky.social’s polling indicates that Labour faces a turnout challenge it must address if it hopes to secure a close victory. Just 55% of voters who supported Labour in the 2024 general election affirm they will definitely vote, compared to 78% of Reform voters and 70% of Conservative voters.
Shabana Mahmood and Sentencing Council Commend Results of Talks Amid ‘Two-Tier Justice’ Allegations
Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, and the leadership of the Sentencing Council engaged in “constructive” discussions recently concerning judicial guidance that has ignited allegations of “two-tier justice,” as reported by PA Media.
PA indicates that Mahmood requested the council to revise guidance suggesting judges should consider a criminal’s ethnicity while deciding on punishments, but this request was not endorsed by the independent body.
Statements from both the Ministry of Justice and the council confirmed that Mahmood and council chairman Lord Justice William Davis had a productive dialogue. They agreed that the lord chancellor will detail her stance in writing, which the Sentencing Council will deliberate upon before the new guidelines come into effect.
Last week, the Sentencing Council released updated principles for sentencing that implement new considerations, such as requiring a pre-sentence report more frequently for certain demographic groups, including ethnic, cultural or faith minorities, young adults, women, and pregnant individuals.
Mahmood previously requested a revision of these guidelines in response to protests claiming they contributed to a two-tier justice system; however, the council maintained that such revisions were unwarranted.
Source
www.theguardian.com