Photo credit: globalnews.ca
Projected Surge in Chronic Illnesses Among Adults in Ontario by 2040
A significant increase in the number of adults with major chronic illnesses in Ontario is anticipated over the next two decades, as outlined in a recent study by the University of Toronto. The findings from the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, in collaboration with the Ontario Hospital Association, reveal alarming projections for the year 2040.
The analysis forecasts that the number of adults living with major illnesses in Ontario will escalate to approximately 3.1 million in 2040, nearly doubling from about 1.8 million in 2020. Additionally, it is expected that one in four adults aged 30 and older will experience a major illness, compared to one in eight individuals in 2002.
“As we look to the future, it’s clear that Ontario has reached a turning point,” remarked Anthony Dale, the president and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association. “The health system is currently facing considerable challenges due to rapid population growth and increasingly complex healthcare needs. These findings confirm that simply maintaining the status quo is not viable. Ontario’s healthcare sector needs a wave of innovation; without it, the system will be unable to cope with the upcoming demand.”
With a rising number of residents facing chronic diseases, the study also indicates that individuals will likely contend with multiple health conditions, aggravating the situation. The most prevalent diseases expected to rise include age-related conditions such as osteoarthritis, diabetes, and cancer. The researchers highlighted that the prevalence of co-existing chronic conditions is a leading factor driving the demand for healthcare services and incurs substantial costs for hospitals.
Importance of Forward Planning in Healthcare
“To ensure that the planning for healthcare services is both sustainable and equitable, it is vital we anticipate future chronic disease trends,” stated Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and a co-author of the study. “Our projections indicate that a greater number of Ontarians will be affected by major illnesses, necessitating that we devise new strategies right away—especially in chronic disease prevention and management.”
The report, titled Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario, is a comprehensive evaluation aimed at quantifying chronic diseases and multimorbidity within the province’s population.
Understanding the Health Trends
Researchers employed age and sex-specific demographic data, alongside historical trends in chronic illness, to predict future health burdens. Canadians are living longer, with life expectancy rising to 81.5 years between 2020 and 2022. This increasing lifespan contributes significantly to the projected rise in chronic diseases, coupled with existing social determinants and risk factors associated with these illnesses.
The forecast also highlights that Ontario’s population is expected to grow by 36 percent over the next 20 years, with the most substantial increase occurring among those aged 65 and older. In response to these projections, the study urges the Ontario healthcare system to take swift action, emphasizing the need for a stronger focus on prevention, early detection, and effective management of chronic diseases.
Furthermore, it recommends the development of a long-term strategic plan for health services capacity to adequately address the evolving needs of an expanding and aging population, as well as to enhance services that enable seniors to age comfortably at home.
“Throughout recent decades, it has been innovations in biomedical and technology that have spurred clinical enhancements, cost efficiency, and improved healthcare access,” Dale noted. “Currently, advancements such as artificial intelligence, gene therapy, and personalized medicine hold remarkable promise. By collaborating and embracing various forms of innovation, we can build a healthier future characterized by reduced disease prevalence, superior treatment options, and equitable healthcare access. Achieving this is within our reach.”
Source
globalnews.ca