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Colleges Confront Reduced Enrollment Amid Pandemic Fallout

As the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to reshape higher education, many colleges are grappling not only with seasonal enrollment challenges, often referred to as “summer melt,” but also with a significant long-term decline in student numbers.

Summer melt occurs when high school graduates who accepted college admissions offers do not actually enroll before the fall semester begins. Factors contributing to this phenomenon include missed deadlines for crucial paperwork such as housing applications and financial aid forms.

Dr. Doug Shapiro, vice president of research at the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), highlighted a more pervasive issue that extends beyond summer melt. “The declines in the number of freshmen overall have been quite staggering since the pandemic,” he noted. The NSC, known for its educational data services, does not specifically track summer melt but does monitor freshman enrollment figures.

According to Dr. Shapiro, the freshman enrollment numbers have plummeted by approximately 9.5% over the past two years, and there are no indications that this trend will reverse. Community colleges have been particularly affected, with freshman enrollment down by around 18% during the same period. Moreover, the decline at four-year institutions has worsened from the first to the second year of the pandemic.

“The only exceptions are the most selective four-year colleges, which have returned to pre-pandemic levels,” Shapiro explained. “In contrast, less selective institutions and those with broader access have experienced even steeper declines.”

Experts attribute part of this enrollment downturn to economic realities, particularly concerns about affordability amid a challenging job market. Students are increasingly questioning the value of a college degree against the backdrop of immediate financial pressures.

Chris Lucier, director at Othot, emphasized that many students from underserved backgrounds are reconsidering their college plans. “Students from low-income families and first-generation college students may feel compelled to prioritize work over education in order to support their families,” he remarked.

Dr. Martha Parham from the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC) noted that the competitive wages in entry-level jobs, often exceeding $25 per hour, make college enrollment less appealing. “These jobs are tough to compete with, especially when they come with benefits,” she stated.

While studies consistently show that individuals with a college degree tend to have higher lifetime earnings, making that choice can be difficult when immediate opportunities in the labor market seem financially advantageous.

Elizabeth Morgan from the National College Attainment Network (NCAN) highlighted strategies that may help alleviate summer melt and overall enrollment declines. “Identifying students who are most at risk of summer melt and providing tailored support is crucial,” she advised. This includes aiding students in understanding financial aid awards and navigating necessary paperwork for enrollment.

Lucier added that institutions can leverage predictive analytics to identify at-risk students. “Predictive tools can help determine why a student may not enroll, allowing colleges to tailor their support effectively,” he noted.

In cases where community colleges may lack the resources for advanced analytics, collaborating with local high schools, organizations, and even religious institutions can be a powerful way to promote enrollment and engagement.

“Partnerships within the community can be key to effectively communicating the value of higher education,” Parham stressed. Many colleges are also reinstating traditional approaches by reaching out directly to students who might not enroll, offering support and encouragement.

The NSC’s Student Tracker for High Schools can assist colleges in identifying which graduates are not enrolling. By matching high school data with NSC’s extensive college enrollment records, schools can proactively engage with students who may need additional support.

Dr. Shapiro emphasized the importance of taking a holistic view of enrollment challenges. “To effectively address summer melt, institutions should consider those who didn’t enroll last year and the year before,” he advised. “The number of these prospective students far exceeds those typically categorized as summer melters.”

In light of these challenges, colleges continue to adapt their strategies, focusing on support systems tailored to foster student success and retention in a post-pandemic environment.

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