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Navigating the Rising Costs of NASA Launches

NASA’s expenditure on launch services has seen a significant escalation over the decades, with costs driven by various factors, including technological advancements, market dynamics, and contractual arrangements. A historical overview illustrates this trend, reflecting both the challenges and the opportunities within the space launch industry.

Launch Price Evolution: A Historical Perspective

The late 1990s and early 2000s showcased relatively modest launch costs for NASA missions:

• 1998: Deep Space 1 — Delta II rocket — $86 million
• 1999: Mars Polar Lander — Delta II rocket — $88 million
• 2001: Mars Odyssey — Delta II rocket — $96 million
• 2003: Spirit and Opportunity Mars rovers — two Delta II rockets — $87 million each
• 2004: Swift — Delta II rocket — $90 million
• 2005: Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter — Atlas V rocket — $147 million
• 2007: Phoenix Mars lander — Delta II rocket — $132 million

However, following the establishment of United Launch Alliance (ULA) in the late 2000s, which was formed through a merger of the Atlas and Delta rocket programs, launch prices began to rise. This merger substantially reduced competition for NASA’s launch contracts until the emergence of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, which disrupted the market in the mid-2010s.

Rising Costs in the 2010s

The following examples of NASA missions illustrate the escalating prices adjusted for inflation to reflect 2025 dollar values:

• 2009: Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter — Atlas V rocket — $220 million
• 2012: Radiation Belt Storm Probes — Atlas V rocket — $226 million (averaged from a bulk buy)
• 2014: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 — Delta II rocket — $191 million (averaged from a bulk buy)
• 2016: OSIRIS-REx asteroid mission — Atlas V rocket — $252 million
• 2017: TDRS-M data relay satellite — Atlas V rocket — $179 million
• 2017: JPSS-2 weather satellite — Atlas V rocket — $224 million
• 2018: InSight Mars lander — Atlas V rocket — $220 million
• 2018: ICESAT-2 — Delta II rocket — $134 million

Had these contracts been awarded today, they would most likely utilize SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets, which have consistently offered lower pricing. The adjustment for inflation reveals that Falcon 9 prices have maintained a more competitive stance:

• 2016: Jason 3 oceanography satellite — Falcon 9 rocket — $114 million
• 2018: Transiting Exoplanets Survey Satellite — Falcon 9 rocket — $118 million
• 2020: Sentinel-6A — Falcon 9 rocket — $126 million
• 2021: Double Asteroid Redirection Test — Falcon 9 rocket — $86 million
• 2021: Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer — Falcon 9 rocket — $62 million
• 2022: Surface Water and Ocean Topography — Falcon 9 rocket — $148 million
• 2024: PACE Earth sciences mission — Falcon 9 rocket — $99 million
• 2025: SPHEREx astronomy mission — Falcon 9 rocket — $99 million

Future NASA Missions and the Cost Outlook

Looking ahead, NASA has secured future launches on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, with some contracts awarded recently. Below are potential launch costs for upcoming missions, presented in a mix of inflation-adjusted and nominal values:

• 2025: Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe — Falcon 9 rocket — $134 million
• 2025: Sentinel-6B — Falcon 9 rocket — $101 million
• 2027: NEO Surveyor — Falcon 9 rocket — $100 million
• 2027: JPSS-4 weather satellite — Falcon 9 rocket — $113 million
• 2027: Compton Spectrometer and Imager — Falcon 9 rocket — $69 million

It is noteworthy that SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, which is utilized for NASA’s most demanding missions, bears a higher cost compared to the Falcon 9. For instance, two identical weather satellites were launched on ULA’s Atlas V and SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy in 2022 and 2024, at prices of $207 million and $178 million, respectively, both adjusted for inflation.

Conclusion

The trajectory of NASA’s launch costs underscores a complex interplay of market forces, technological innovation, and competitive dynamics. As the landscape continues to evolve, the introduction of new players like SpaceX has the potential to reshape the economics of space exploration, potentially paving the way for more affordable access to space.

Source
arstechnica.com