Photo credit: www.bbc.com
Russian Naval Activity in Syria Signals Potential Military Withdrawal
The Royal Navy has issued images of the Sparta II navigating through international waters in late December prior to its arrival in Syria.
Recently, two Russian ships, the Sparta and the Sparta II, docked at Tartous, a key naval base on the Syrian coast. Analysts suggest that this development may indicate the beginning of a military evacuation from the facility, particularly given Russia’s anticipated reduction of its military presence in Syria following significant changes in the region.
These vessels, both of which are under U.S. sanctions and linked to the transportation of arms to Ukraine, arrived on a Tuesday amid growing concerns over Russia’s operational future in Syria. Following the downfall of the Assad regime in December—a regime it had heavily supported throughout the Syrian civil war—experts had predicted a diminishing Russian military footprint in the country.
Recent satellite imagery analyzed by BBC Verify shows an accumulation of military equipment at the port, with dozens of vehicles spotted in the area. These images suggested a significant influx of military hardware to Tartous, with sightings first emerging in mid-December as convoys redirected from other locations across Syria began moving toward the base.
The ships’ arrival coincides with unverified reports from Syrian media indicating that Russia’s lease for the port may have been revoked. Both the transitional government in Damascus and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refrained from commenting on these claims, leaving the situation uncertain.
Tartous has served as a crucial hub for Russian naval operations, providing facilities for refueling, resupply, and vessel repairs within the Mediterranean. The Kremlin has expressed its intention to maintain a presence at the port, with discussions reportedly ongoing regarding its future under new Syrian authorities.
Experts have pointed out that the Sparta and the Sparta II, both owned by a shipping company associated with the Russian Ministry of Defence, had initially been denied docking rights at Tartous as negotiations continued. For several weeks, these ships had remained stationed off the Syrian coast until their recent docking.
Although weather conditions have hindered the capture of high-resolution satellite images in recent days, lower-resolution images from the EU’s Sentinel radar satellites confirmed that the vessels are currently located in the military section of the port.
Prior to the arrival of these navy ships, there had been no reports of Russian military vessels at Tartous since early December’s regime changes. High-resolution satellite imagery from this period also captured numerous military vehicles parked in close proximity to the new vessel locations, indicating ongoing military preparations.
Some naval analysts have hinted at the presence of additional Russian vessels, including the Ivan Gren and the Alexander Otrakovsky, which may also be preparing for evacuation operations. Ukrainian military intelligence has echoed these sentiments, observing that the cancellation of the 49-year lease marks a definitive shift for Russia’s military objectives in Tartous.
According to Frederik Van Lokeren, a naval analyst, the lack of a sustainable military presence following the lease termination has prompted this expedited evacuation process. However, he cautioned that the extraction of all military equipment could take an extensive amount of time given the significant buildup that has occurred over the years.
In contrast, activity continues unabated at the main Russian airbase in Syria, Hmeimim. Recent satellite images have evidenced heavy loading of military equipment onto Russian aircraft in the weeks following the regime’s fall.
Reports from Ukrainian military intelligence suggest that flights from Hmeimim have successfully transferred military personnel and equipment to airbases in Libya on multiple occasions since mid-December. This coincides with Moscow’s ongoing support for Khalifa Haftar, a warlord with a base of operations in eastern Libya.
The Russian military has established a presence at two bases in Libya—Al-Khadim and Al-Jufra—which have been previously linked to the Wagner Group. Following the dissolution of significant ties with Wagner, the Russian Defense Ministry has reportedly assumed control over these operations through a newly formed entity, known as the Africa Corps, tasked with military duties across the continent.
Observers note that these developments reflect a strategic pivot for Russian operations, as Libya emerges as a significant hub for their military efforts in West Africa.
Source
www.bbc.com