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Senate GOP Primaries Set to Resurface After Two-Year Pause
After a two-year pause, Senate Republicans are anticipating a return to contentious primary challenges, impacting both current Senate members and favored new candidates. This shift marks a significant deviation from activities encouraged by party leaders in collaboration with former President Trump, which were aimed at reducing primary contests to strengthen their position ahead of the 2024 elections.
The coordinated efforts during the previous cycle yielded impressive results, enabling Senate Republicans to avoid numerous potential primary conflicts and secure a commanding 53-seat majority, which has already proven beneficial in the early days of Trump’s presidency.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, however, the landscape may be dramatically altered, as the party could face more than half a dozen competitive primaries. This turn of events heightens the stakes for maintaining their majority, potentially resulting in an even more challenging electoral cycle.
A GOP strategist involved in Senate races conveyed optimism regarding possible gains, stating, “There’s a genuine opportunity to secure 54 or 55 seats this cycle. However, any scenario that puts a strong red seat in jeopardy due to a divisive primary could inadvertently empower Democrats, which is ill-advised.”
In the wake of a disappointing 2022 midterm cycle, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) revamped the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) approach to ensure stringent party leadership over candidate selection. The strategy emphasized backing candidates capable of self-funding, who could navigate both the primaries and general elections effectively. This tactic successfully minimized disruptive primary fights by securing Trump’s support for select candidates, thus reserving campaign resources for the general election.
As the NRSC looks to replicate its past successes, early signs of primaries have begun to surface. Specific incumbent senators have already been identified as potential targets, with the NRSC pledging to defend certain members while assessing the broader political environment.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a veteran figure in the party, is likely to face a significant challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, an intraparty contest expected to be intense due to their personal rivalry. Meanwhile, in Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is up against former Rep. John Fleming (R), particularly after Cassidy’s controversial vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment related to January 6 events.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is also feeling the heat as conservative factions push back against his prior bipartisan initiatives, which could trigger a primary challenge in the near future.
Open-seat contests and seats currently held by Democrats also present fertile ground for GOP primary clashes. In Kentucky, former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) may face Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), who plans to officially announce his candidacy soon as the successor to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) has declared another bid in Michigan, but it remains uncertain whether he can navigate the primary unchallenged, despite endorsements from prominent party figures. Speculation surrounds whether Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) will enter the race.
The GOP primary in Georgia presents another variable; should Gov. Brian Kemp (R) choose to enter the fray, he could significantly reshape the candidate field, yet a lack of commitment from him leaves the race wide open.
A Senate GOP aide highlighted the critical nature of this election cycle, expressing concern that persuading members to step aside could prove more difficult than in the previous year. “Following a successful cycle, expectations for engagement are higher,” the aide noted.
In addition to the highlighted races, other states may see GOP members contemplate gubernatorial runs, including Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.).
Despite the concerns surrounding the primaries, there is potential merit in competitive races, particularly for candidates in open-seat scenarios. Operatives suggest that rigorous primaries can enhance a candidate’s campaign structure and serve as a preparatory stage for the general election.
However, the focus on challenging incumbents poses risks, with Trump and new NRSC chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in the spotlight. Cornyn’s primary is particularly notable due to his experience and ongoing feud with Paxton, who maintains close ties with Trump. Observers believe that Trump’s endorsement of Cornyn is likely to materialize, as he requires the Texas senator’s backing.
Members of the GOP suggest that Scott must be proactive in mediating these intra-party challenges to prevent potential fallout. “If Cornyn loses, it could necessitate significant spending in the general election due to a less viable candidate emerging from the primary,” warned one Senate Republican.
The NRSC defended its strategy in response to critiques, asserting that party members need to refocus their efforts. The committee has emphasized successful fundraising as essential to overcoming previously incurred debts and maintaining majority control.
Looking to the future, Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), serving as an NRSC vice chair, stressed party unity during these early stages, echoing sentiments of collective effort toward bolstering their majority.
Challenges to sitting senators in primaries are exceptionally rare, the last significant instance occurring in 2012 when Richard Mourdock defeated the late Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). The shifts witnessed in 2010 and 2012 catalyzed efforts by Senate leadership to directly intervene in primaries, eventually helping to secure a majority in the subsequent cycles.
As preparations continue for upcoming elections, many of the candidates who were previously supported by party efforts will once again appear on ballots, prompting reflections on the cyclical nature of political challenges within the GOP.
Source
thehill.com