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Spring Weather Forecasts: What to Expect Across Canada

Spring typically brings a tumultuous blend of weather patterns, where winter often tries to maintain its grip before ultimately giving way to summer’s warmth. This year presents unique challenges for meteorologists, particularly as Canada transitions from a weak La Niña phase to indications of a potential El Niño developing in the Pacific.

These variations in ocean temperatures have the potential to influence the jet stream and global weather dynamics. However, current signs remain ambiguous and unreliable.

Long-range weather models serve as a vital tool for forecasters to anticipate seasonal shifts. Let’s take a closer look at the spring expectations across different regions of Canada.

As of early March, the snowpack in British Columbia and western Alberta is substantially lower than usual, measuring over 25 percent below the norm.

There is optimism for an active weather system that could bring additional snowfall to the mountainous areas, helping to restore snow levels closer to the average before the significant spring thaw.

Forecasts indicate a likelihood of above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures this spring. Consequently, western regions might avoid the explosive starts to the fire season experienced in recent years.

It is expected that temperatures will rise above seasonal norms by early June and could persist through the summer months. The Prairies are likely to experience fluctuating periods of cold and mild weather throughout April.

Moreover, this erratic pattern could result in several significant snowfall events before winter’s final retreat to the north.

Flooding Outlook and Temperature Trends

While flood risks exist, this year does not appear to be poised for a major flooding season. As spring advances, warmer weather will gradually move northward, possibly leading to an early onset of severe weather conditions as fronts shift around a high-pressure ridge settling over the United States’ Plains from late May into June.

The prospects for a hot summer seem to be on the horizon, especially following a record-breaking snowy February, which was recently alleviated by warm temperatures and rainfall that reduced snowpack levels in the affected provinces.

A cooler-than-average span from late March to early April will contribute to a more manageable snowmelt in areas still carrying substantial snow cover. The spring season is anticipated to remain active, with increased precipitation from southern Ontario extending into Quebec.

While late-season snow is still a possibility, there is little indication that a severe late freeze — typical in previous years — will occur. Warmer conditions should dominate in May and June, escalating the risk of severe weather events, particularly in southern Ontario starting in May and in Quebec by June.

In the transitional period of late March and early April, cooler temperatures and additional snowfall could be expected, especially for New Brunswick.

In New Brunswick, the recent mild spells and rainfall have facilitated a reduction in snowpack, which bodes well for the region’s flood outlook and across the Maritimes.

As warmer conditions take hold, a mild May and June are anticipated throughout the area, often accompanied by showers. Overall, New Brunswick is expected to see above-normal precipitation, while Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland may experience near-normal levels.

Meanwhile, a colder-than-normal spring is forecasted for Yukon and parts of the Northwest Territories, while Nunavut is likely to see above-average temperatures.

Amidst these seasonal developments, it’s pivotal to note the broader context of climate change, which has led to pronounced temperature increases at the poles over recent decades. This phenomenon has resulted in diminished winter ice growth and accelerated summer melting. Heading into this spring, Arctic ice coverage is again reported at historically low levels.

Source
globalnews.ca