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Northwestern University researchers, inspired by local community partners, have conducted a study simulating the potential benefits of adopting zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) for air quality improvements in the greater Chicago area.
The findings were published on March 18 in the journal Frontiers of Earth Science.
In collaboration with members of Neighbors for an Equitable Transition to Zero-Emissions (NET-Z) Illinois, the researchers focused on the impact of implementing a policy similar to California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) initiative in Cook County and its surroundings.
To achieve an accurate depiction of the Chicago area’s pollution, the research team enhanced an existing Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air-quality model. This improved model integrated satellite data and insights from local community experiences, leading to a comparison of current air quality with projections under the ACT framework.
Implementing an ACT policy in Illinois could lead to a significant decrease in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution, potentially preventing around 500 premature deaths and 600 new cases of childhood asthma annually. Notably, the policy’s strongest health benefits would be evident in neighborhoods facing the highest pollution levels, where residents of color are often the most affected. Thus, reducing air pollution not only alleviates health challenges but also addresses systemic racial disparities in exposure to pollution.
“As a mother of a child with asthma, the implications of these findings hit home for me,” stated Victoria Lang, a Ph.D. candidate at Northwestern University and the study’s lead author. “Preventing 600 new pediatric asthma cases each year could spare many children the hardships associated with chronic respiratory conditions. Geography should not dictate a child’s health outcomes.”
Lang is part of Northwestern’s Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, under the guidance of Daniel Horton, a senior author on the paper. Valuable insights from organizations such as the Respiratory Health Association and Little Village Environmental Justice Organization contributed significantly to the research.
ACTing on Air Quality
Traffic-related air pollutants are linked to numerous severe health issues, including asthma, chronic bronchitis, and even premature mortality. California’s ACT policy, established in June 2020, aims to address these challenges by gradually transitioning 50% of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including trucks and buses, to zero-emission alternatives by 2050.
“The goal of achieving a ZEV fleet is designed to accommodate the economic constraints of the trucking industry,” Horton explained. “It’s unrealistic for companies to replace entire diesel fleets instantly. ACT provides incentives for a gradual transition as vehicles reach the end of their operational lifespan.”
NET-Z Illinois approached Horton’s lab, seeking to determine whether similar regulations could mitigate pollution-related health issues in the Chicago region. Previous modeling efforts had already examined scenarios where 30% of heavy-duty vehicles transitioned to electric, but community stakeholders identified potential shortcomings in the data.
“Community members requested a simulation of the ACT’s impacts to bolster advocacy efforts in Illinois,” added Horton. “They also believed our emissions estimates might overlook crucial realities in various neighborhoods. We needed to verify that the data accurately reflected these differences.”
Filling the Gaps with Community Insights
Horton’s team primarily utilized EPA data, which provides estimates of emissions on a national scale. However, these aggregate figures may overlook localized emission patterns, particularly in urban areas like Chicago.
“The EPA’s methodology assigns typical emissions based on representative counties, which may not accurately reflect Chicago’s unique urban landscape,” Horton noted. “This broad approach lacks specificity for concentrated urban areas.”
“Moreover, the EPA’s model operates at a coarser resolution,” Lang added. “Our team employed a one-kilometer resolution to capture neighborhood-level impacts. However, some of the assumptions made in broader models did not seamlessly apply to our localized studies.”
Residents from Chicago’s West Side expressed concerns that previous emissions estimates seemed understated. To investigate this, community scientists set up 35 cameras to monitor truck traffic along the I-55 corridor. The findings indicated that neighborhoods near I-55 experience considerable truck traffic, with heavy-duty trucks idling extensively in various locations, which had not been adequately reflected in the earlier data.
“Our aim was to ensure our model reflected these real-world experiences,” Lang remarked. “The EPA’s model spread idling emissions citywide, but that doesn’t represent the concentrated idling near warehouses and distribution centers on the West Side. We adjusted our model to reflect these operational patterns more accurately.”
The Health and Economic Advantages of ZEV Adoption
With updated data, the researchers executed a baseline simulation for current air pollution across Cook County and adjoining regions, including DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will counties. Their findings indicated that emissions from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles contribute about 22% of the region’s NO2 pollution, correlating with 1,330 premature deaths and 1,580 new cases of childhood asthma each year.
When modeling the prospective impact of ACT policy adoption, the team projected a nearly 50% reduction in tailpipe emissions from these vehicles. They determined that, if Illinois were to enact the ACT policy, NO2 levels could decline by 8.4% by 2050, resulting in roughly 500 fewer premature deaths and 600 fewer new cases of childhood asthma annually.
In addition to public health benefits, implementing ACT regulations in Illinois could save the state approximately $731 million each year by avoiding health costs and climate-related damages. Communities of color, which typically reside near high-traffic areas, would likely see the most significant improvements in air quality.
As the Illinois Pollution Control Board weighs the possibility of adopting ACT regulations, this research highlights the critical role of transitioning to ZEVs in promoting public health. Professor Robert Weinstock from Northwestern Pritzker School of Law is leading advocacy efforts to support the measure, with Horton providing expert insights on potential public health gains associated with vehicle electrification. This collaboration exemplifies the impactful outcomes of community-driven academic research.
“It’s ultimately up to the states to decide on adopting the ACT standards,” Horton remarked. “This represents an opportunity for Illinois to take the lead by instituting a policy that benefits both the health of local residents and the broader climate agenda.”
The study titled “Assessing air quality, public health, and equity implications of an Advanced Clean Trucks policy for Illinois” received contributions from the National Science Foundation and the Environmental Defense Fund.
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