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Escalating Conflict in Syria: Rebel Advances Challenge Assad’s Regime

Rebel groups have intensified their campaign in Syria, claiming control over numerous cities, including Homs, following a significant offensive against the government that began over a week ago.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of the Islamist faction spearheading the insurrection, has announced the “historic victory” of his forces in Homs, which is recognized as Syria’s third largest city. He urged his combatants to treat surrendered individuals humanely. However, verification of these assertions by independent sources, including the BBC, remains pending.

In response to these developments, the Syrian Defence Ministry has dismissed the claims, maintaining that Homs is currently “stable and safe.” Despite this, the situation around the capital, Damascus, appears grim as rebel forces reportedly approach the area, prompting the Syrian military to bolster its defenses.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group, reports that anti-government fighters have infiltrated Homs and assumed control of several neighborhoods. Rebel commander Hasan Abdul Ghani proclaimed the “complete liberation” of the city, stating that over 3,500 detainees had been released as a result of the takeover.

The fall of Homs would significantly undermine President Bashar al-Assad’s position, isolating Damascus from the coastal regions predominantly inhabited by his family’s Alawite sect. This development would not only deliver a crucial military setback but also serve as a symbolic defeat, as Homs was a key stronghold for opposition forces in the early days of the civil war that erupted in 2011.

Ghani expressed aspirations to continue the offensive, aiming to “liberate the entire Damascus countryside,” with a clear focus on the capital itself. An unnamed US official conveyed to CBS News that the city appears to be undergoing a gradual fall to rebel control, neighborhood by neighborhood.

Visual evidence from social media has captured scenes of jubilation as demonstrators in the Jeramana suburb celebrated by toppling a statue of Hafez al-Assad, the late father of the current president. These events signal a deepening uncertainty among Damascus residents, as reported by those interviewed by the BBC. Journalist Zaina Shahla encapsulated the anxiety of the local populace, stating, “We are afraid because we really don’t know what’s going to happen.” Rim Turkmani, director of the Syria Conflict Research Programme at the London School of Economics, noted concerning reports from her sister in the city about dwindling supplies and cash shortages at ATMs.

Speculations regarding President Assad’s whereabouts have circulated widely, with some suggesting he may have fled. His office has rejected these claims, asserting that he continues to work in Damascus, although his public presence has notably diminished.

The reported capture of Homs follows a rapid offensive by rebel forces, marking one of the most significant challenges to the Syrian government’s authority in years and revealing the fragility of its military. The government has lost grip on other strategic cities, including Hama and Aleppo in the north, while armed factions in the southern region have reportedly taken control of Deraa and Suweida near the Jordanian border.

The ongoing conflict has led to a devastating humanitarian toll, with SOHR estimating over 800 fatalities resulting from the battles. The UN has reported that approximately 370,000 individuals have been displaced, including many Alawites fleeing the advancing rebels. Furthermore, the organization highlighted the deteriorating conditions for civilians in northern Syria as a result of escalating violence.

The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of a negotiated resolution to the crisis, though he acknowledged the risks of further deterioration. Pederson mentioned that several nations are engaged in discussions with rebel factions, emphasizing the importance of preventing chaos and bloodshed. His remarks followed a recent meeting in Qatar that included representatives from five Arab nations, as well as Iran, Turkey, and Russia, three key external powers involved in the Syrian conflict. A joint statement from this meeting underscored the current crisis as a threat to both regional and international security.

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