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Uncertainty Looms Over Syria After Assad’s Sudden Ouster

DAMASCUS/NEW YORK (Reuters) – The rapid fall of President Bashar al-Assad has sparked uncertainty among Syrians, neighboring countries, and global powers regarding the future of the nation, as the rebel coalition initiates procedures for a governmental transition.

After a closed-door meeting on Monday, the United Nations Security Council’s diplomats expressed astonishment at the swift culmination of Assad’s rule, which unfolded within a span of 12 days, following a civil war that had reached a prolonged stalemate for over a decade.

“It took everyone by surprise, including council members. We must now observe and assess the evolving situation,” stated Russian U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia to reporters post-meeting.

Russia, a staunch ally of Assad’s government throughout the conflict, witnessed the Syrian leader’s flight from Damascus to Moscow, marking the end of a regime that lasted over half a century.

In a sign of progress amidst the upheaval, Assad’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Jalali, agreed to transfer power to the rebel-led Salvation Government, which operates from regions in northwestern Syria controlled by the opposition.

Rebel commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, commonly referred to as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has begun informal discussions with Jalali and Vice President Faisal Mekdad regarding the transitional framework. Jalali noted that the actual transfer of power could unfold over several days.

According to reports from Al Jazeera, the transitional authority is expected to be led by Mohamed al-Bashir, the current head of the Salvation Government.

The surge of the militia coalition, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — once linked to al-Qaeda — represents a significant shift in the Middle Eastern landscape.

The ongoing civil war, which erupted in 2011, has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths, triggered a massive refugee crisis, and left cities in ruins, agriculture devastated, and the economy severely weakened by international sanctions.

However, the rebel coalition has yet to share any concrete plans for Syria’s future governance, and there are no established frameworks for such a political transition in the often fractious region.

In reaction to the shifting dynamics in Syria, oil prices saw a rise of more than 1% on Monday. Analysts surmise this uptick is due, in part, to apprehensions that the instability in Syria could escalate tensions in the broader region.

Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Robert Wood, remarked on the momentous change for the Syrian populace, emphasizing the focus on determining whether a governing authority can emerge that adequately respects the rights and dignity of the Syrian people.

The United States is actively seeking avenues to engage with Syrian rebel factions and is also initiating informal diplomatic talks with regional allies, including Turkey, to navigate the evolving landscape.

Additionally, Qatari diplomats reportedly engaged in discussions with HTS, illustrating the urgency with which regional states are attempting to establish communication with the group as the situation evolves.

Aspirations for a New Governance

Various insurgent fighters, gathered in central Umayyad Square, expressed optimism regarding the establishment of an effective civilian administration. One fighter, Firdous Omar, articulated a desire for a structured state where security forces play a vital role, as he pictured returning to agricultural life in Idlib province.

Al-Golani has expressed commitments to the reconstruction of Syria’s future, as HTS has strived to reshape its image to garner trust from both foreign nations and the diverse minority communities within Syria.

Nonetheless, the designation of HTS as a terrorist organization by numerous countries and the U.N. raises questions regarding the group’s legitimacy in governance.

“Syrians are eager to cultivate a state founded on principles of freedom, equality, and democracy, and we are ready to collaborate to rebuild our nation and secure a prosperous future,” stated Syria’s U.N. Ambassador Koussay Aldahhak in recent remarks.

Signs of normalcy began to surface, with Syria’s banks set to reopen on Tuesday and the oil ministry issuing a call for employees in the sector to return to work, ensuring that protective measures would be in place for their safety.

Challenges Ahead

However, challenges remain for Syria. Israel’s recent actions to take control of a buffer zone in southern Syria have drawn criticism from Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, with Saudi officials declaring the move could jeopardize Syria’s stability. Despite this, Israel has maintained its stance on conducting airstrikes for security purposes while downplaying its involvement in Syria’s internal conflicts.

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