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KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan – The recent passing of Pope Francis has ignited concerns among some in Taiwan regarding the future of the Catholic Church leadership and its implications for Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with the Vatican. The Holy See, the sole European state maintaining diplomatic ties with Taipei, has been the focus of speculation, especially given the Vatican’s recent engagements with Beijing.
Taiwan, with a Catholic population of fewer than 300,000, contrasts sharply with the estimated 8 to 12 million Catholics in mainland China and approximately 390,000 in Hong Kong. Despite these figures, the Vatican continues to recognize Taiwan as the sole “China.”
Following the death of Pope Francis, Taiwan’s President William Lai expressed his intention to attend the funeral; however, it was later revealed by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs that former Vice President and devout Catholic Chen Chien-jen would serve as the official envoy.
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A notable scene unfolded on August 10, 2018, as worshippers in a Catholic mass at Holy Spirit Church in Yanshui, Taiwan, formed queues to receive communion. The church, with its unique architecture that mirrors local temples, stands as a representative of the more than 1,000 Catholic churches across the island. (SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)
Political risk analyst Ross Feingold observed that Taiwan may feel let down by President Lai’s absence from this significant event. “Historically, Taiwanese presidents have attended papal funerals,” Feingold noted, referring to former President Chen Shui-bian’s attendance at Pope John Paul II’s funeral in 2005. “It’s reasonable to assume inquiries were made to the Vatican, and that the response was unfavorable.”
Since Pope Francis ascended to the papacy in 2013, the Vatican has made strides to foster relations with Beijing. A 2018 agreement concerning the appointment of bishops has been central to this new diplomatic approach, allowing both the Vatican and Chinese authorities to have a say in bishop selections—an effort to reconcile contrasting factions within Chinese Catholicism. While Vatican officials maintain that this strategy is religious, its implications are viewed with apprehension from Taiwan.
This development is compounded by the historical context in which China severed ties with the Holy See in 1951. The Chinese government insists that establishing relations with Beijing necessitates the cessation of diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Currently, only 12 nations officially recognize Taiwan, with the Vatican being its most symbolically significant ally.
Despite these tensions, Thomas Tu, a Vatican expert at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, argues that fears regarding a sudden shift in allegiance are overstated. He emphasized that the Vatican’s mission is global and resilient. “The Vatican has endured through various empires and is known for its patience,” Tu stated, citing its established diplomatic presence in Vietnam as an example of its long-term strategic approach.
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On December 24, 2023, attendees gathered for a Christmas mass at Xishiku Catholic Church in Beijing. (Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images)
Pope Francis, who viewed engagement with China as a path toward dialogue, made several overtures to Beijing during his tenure, including sending greetings to Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2014. His visit to Mongolia in 2023 also included a message of goodwill to the Chinese populace.
These gestures have not gone unnoticed, particularly among critical voices within the Church. Cardinal Joseph Zen, a prominent figure and critic of the Chinese government, has spoken out against any perceived capitulation to Beijing. Zen was previously arrested due to the imposition of a National Security Law in Hong Kong but has since been allowed to attend the pope’s funeral.
For many critics like Zen, fostering relations with China symbolizes an unacceptable compromise with an officially atheist regime.
Pope Francis, during his papacy, recognized that Beijing’s strict control over the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association limited the freedoms of millions of Chinese Catholics. Although the Vatican has made compromises, it seeks spiritual autonomy—an endeavor complicated by China’s one-party rule.
While speculation grows about the direction a new pope might take, many experts believe any drastic changes in policy are unlikely. “There’s no urgency for the Vatican to make hasty moves,” remarked Dr. Chang Ching, a Senior Research Fellow at the ROC Society for Strategic Studies. “The Vatican has historically known how to bide its time, and China is not yet prepared to accommodate the Chinese Catholic community in a manner comparable to practices in other countries. This decades-long division represents just a brief moment in the lengthy history of both the Church and Chinese civilization.”
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