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Tesla Faces Challenges Ahead of First-Quarter Delivery Report

Key Takeaways

Tesla’s stock saw some upward movement just prior to the anticipated release of its first-quarter delivery figures. Analysts predict a modest increase in vehicle deliveries compared to last year, although a decline from the preceding quarter is expected. This comes in light of recent reports detailing decreased sales in crucial markets like Europe and China.

Tesla (TSLA) shares saw a nearly 4% increase, closing at $268.46 on Tuesday, as investors await the company’s first-quarter delivery data set to be revealed on Wednesday.

Current estimates suggest Tesla will report around 393,000 deliveries for the first quarter, reflecting a growth of less than 2% year-over-year but a drop from 495,570 deliveries in the previous quarter, according to Visible Alpha.

Analysts from Wedbush, who maintain a bullish target price of $550 for Tesla—significantly higher than the average target of $349—highlight that they expect delivery numbers to fall within the lower range of 355,000 to 365,000.

The beginning of 2025 has proven challenging for Tesla, particularly in its crucial markets such as Europe and China. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association indicates that only around 19,000 new Tesla registrations occurred in the EU during the initial months of the year, marking a decline of approximately 50% year-over-year. Similarly, reports indicate that Tesla’s sales in China also experienced a nearly 50% drop in February compared to the same month in the previous year.

The company has also encountered political scrutiny directed at CEO Elon Musk, particularly concerning his involvement with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency. Wedbush analysts noted that this political backlash is likely a significant factor impacting Tesla’s quarterly delivery results.

The forthcoming delivery figures arrive during a particularly tumultuous phase for Tesla’s stock, which was among the worst performers in the S&P 500 during the first quarter. Shares have experienced a decline of over a third in value amid concerns about sluggish sales, uncertainties regarding tariffs, and deteriorating brand sentiment.

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