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The Evolving Landscape of Energy Security in a Geopolitical Context

The global landscape is increasingly marked by volatility and uncertainty, a trend that extends to the energy sector. Factors such as tariffs, sanctions, geopolitical conflicts, and disruptions in supply chains have heavily impacted international energy trade. These dynamics have sparked a rise in protectionist policies in various countries, contributing to fluctuations in commodity prices and exacerbating energy inequality.

In light of these challenges, it is important to recognize that opportunities also arise from adversity. Shifts in geopolitics and geoeconomics compel a reevaluation of our understanding of energy security. Historically, energy security has largely been equated with the availability of fossil fuels; however, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) advocates for a paradigm shift towards incorporating renewable energy capacity into this definition.

Renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaics and wind energy, are advancing at an unprecedented rate, positioning themselves at the core of the global energy framework. In 2024, a record-breaking 585 gigawatts of renewable power capacity was added worldwide, marking significant growth. IRENA’s projections suggest that by 2050, over 90% of global electricity will need to stem from renewable sources, reflecting a decisive move away from fossil fuels.

As we navigate this transition, the influence of geopolitics cannot be underestimated. The journey involves not just technological advancements but also the management of political and economic dynamics that will ultimately dictate the fairness, security, and efficacy of this transition. Challenges will arise from balancing national industrial policies with global trade norms, addressing the risks of technological decoupling that may undermine cooperation, ensuring equitable access to new technologies, and preventing clean energy dependencies from becoming instruments of geopolitical pressure.

Successful financing and global collaboration will be crucial to overcoming these hurdles. Current discrepancies in the deployment of renewable energy technologies, coupled with inadequate financial resources and looming challenges in the supply of critical transition technologies, complicate the scenario.

IRENA’s report titled “Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Energy Security” emphasizes the need for policymakers to adapt their strategies rather than simply applying outdated fossil fuel-era principles to a world reliant on renewables. The report identifies several essential considerations to steer national policymaking regarding resource assets and comparative advantages, especially as governments commit substantial resources to electrified, digital, and decentralized infrastructures.

Another critical aspect of this transition entails the geopolitics surrounding essential materials. The extraction of vital minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and various rare earth elements is concentrated in a limited number of countries, presenting significant vulnerabilities that could jeopardize energy security.

The geopolitical implications of having concentrated processing and refining capabilities underscore the need for resilient logistics and fair access to these critical inputs. Disruptions could lead to heightened tensions, potentially resulting in trade conflicts, export limitations, and market manipulations that risk delaying progress in the clean energy sector. The impacts of these geopolitical risks are explored in depth in IRENA’s publication, “Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials.”

Despite these challenges, IRENA’s analysis indicates an abundance of reserves for essential materials. For instance, global lithium reserves are estimated at 560 million tonnes, while the anticipated demand for lithium by 2030 ranges from 1.7 to 2.3 million tonnes annually.

As no single nation can independently master every aspect of the clean technology landscape, it becomes vital to consider domestic policies within a broader context of interdependence and cooperation in managing the energy transition.

Investment in exploration, particularly in regions such as Africa with untapped reserves, will be essential. International cooperation is needed to attract investments and establish resilient, diversified supply chains. Additionally, fostering innovation in clean technologies, especially in battery production, will decrease dependence on critical materials and mitigate potential geopolitical tensions.

Strengthening and diversifying supply chains is another critical focus. It is essential not only to secure necessary materials but also to ensure that developing nations can benefit from their own resources. Transparent markets will play a pivotal role in achieving universal energy security.

IRENA’s Geopolitics Work Programme for 2025 prioritizes these pressing issues, reflecting an ongoing commitment to addressing evolving geopolitical frameworks impacting the energy sector.

A Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation was established in 2018, aiming to explore the geopolitical implications of the renewable energy transition. The insights derived from this initiative have proven invaluable in understanding the global transformation underway.

As we look ahead, it is essential to reassess the geopolitical implications of a world increasingly governed by renewable energies. IRENA seeks to reconvene the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transition, inviting leaders from political, business, academic, and policy-making spheres to contemplate the intersection of politics, energy, economics, trade, environmental concerns, and development in light of the significant rise of renewable energy.

In conclusion, while the energy transition poses both challenges and new possibilities, it is through international collaboration, innovative governance, and targeted investments in exploration, recycling, and technological advancement that we can ensure the equitable distribution of the benefits of a clean energy future.

Source
www.irena.org