Photo credit: www.theguardian.com

Labour’s Resurgence in Scotland: A Fragile Victory and Ongoing Challenges

Just a few months ago, Labour achieved a significant milestone by winning the most votes and a majority of seats in Scotland, marking its first such success since 2010. This shift included a surprising 16-point swing from the Scottish National Party (SNP), resulting in Labour gaining 37 Westminster MPs, while the SNP saw its representation plummet from 48 MPs to just nine after changing leaders twice within a year.

Despite this recent victory, it would be premature to conclude that Labour is firmly entrenched in Scottish electoral politics. A recent poll indicates that Labour could face its worst Holyrood election outcome since devolution, with only 18% of Scots inclined to support Anas Sarwar’s party in the upcoming 2026 election. In contrast, the SNP is poised to reclaim its status as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, which could allow current First Minister John Swinney to lead the nationalists into a fifth consecutive administration.

With more than a year remaining before the next Holyrood elections, many factors could still shift the political landscape. However, the current figures set a sobering context for the Scottish Labour conference taking place this weekend in Glasgow. Mr. Sarwar is set to speak on Friday, followed by Sir Keir Starmer on Sunday. What could have been a jubilant celebration of recent success instead looms as a moment for Labour to contemplate its standing within the dynamic and often turbulent Scottish and British political arena after 25 years of devolution.

The rapid decline in Labour support in Scotland can, in part, be linked to the Starmer government’s rocky start last year, which included controversial cuts to winter fuel payments, national insurance increases, and a lack of support for Waspi women campaigners. These unpopular policies resonated negatively not just in Scotland but were also contentious across England and Wales.

However, the SNP has effectively capitalized on these grievances, leveraging them in a way the Conservatives in England have struggled to replicate. As a result, Mr. Swinney has managed to stabilize the SNP’s position by focusing on issues of economic and social justice, rather than becoming mired in identity politics, a shift that contrasts with the slow traction of Conservative figures like Kemi Badenoch.

The rise of Nigel Farage and the influence of Reform UK are also pivotal to the SNP’s recovery. With current polling for Reform UK at around 14%, the party is attracting support from Labour voters, particularly among older and working-class pro-union demographics. This trend suggests that Reform UK could secure around 15 seats in Holyrood, despite its lack of substantial campaigning presence in Scotland. Conversely, the SNP seems to maintain a degree of insulation, relying on a robust base of pro-independence supporters.

Despite some achievements such as reforms in public sector pay, the Starmer government faces scrutiny regarding its effectiveness in Scotland. The SNP’s track record on health and education has waned, yet Mr. Sarwar finds himself navigating the fine line between the fiscal caution mandated by Labour in Westminster and the costly yet popular universal welfare and health initiatives championed by the SNP. In a pre-conference interview, Mr. Sarwar acknowledged the pressing need for a compelling message that resonates with delegates. Scottish Labour has yet to define a distinct and convincing program to regain its foothold in the political landscape, a task he must address at the conference this weekend.

Source
www.theguardian.com