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The Conservative Party is preparing for challenging local elections next week, prompting discussions around potential alliances with Reform UK. This topic has gained momentum following Robert Jenrick’s remarks at a recent gathering of Tory activists, where he mentioned the idea of a “coalition” aimed at “uniting the right.”
While the concept could offer an electoral advantage, openly supporting such a collaboration remains a contentious issue within a party that traditionally views itself as the default governing body in Britain, reluctantly accepting moments of opposition.
The Conservatives, currently trailing in third place in opinion polls, face an uphill battle to secure victory without a strategic shift. In several constituencies, the combined support of Conservative and Reform candidates in the previous election surpassed the winning Labour candidate’s majority. This mathematical reality makes discussions of alliances unavoidable.
However, the dynamics of a potential pact extend beyond simple arithmetic. There is a significant ideological overlap between Conservative and Reform positions, but their voter bases do not entirely align. Some individuals have irrevocably lost faith in the Conservative Party, viewing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK as a break from the traditional two-party system. Farage has little reason to pursue tactical coalitions that could undermine his identity as a challenger to established politics. Additionally, there are former Conservative voters who turned to the Liberal Democrats in 2024, disillusioned by what they perceived as a chaotic and incompetent administration under Rishi Sunak. While these voters might not be permanently lost to the Conservatives, their dissatisfaction remains heightened by Farage’s presence.
The growing conversation around deals with Reform indicates a struggle within the Conservatives to rediscover a broad support base. Kemi Badenoch’s attempts to address this challenge have fallen short. Her analysis of the previous election results lacks clarity and often appears fragmented. She has yet to acknowledge the impact of declining public services on voters’ disdain for Tory governance. Instead, her focus seems to drift towards culture wars and divisive online rhetoric, overshadowing vital policy development. Jenrick, who has ambitions to succeed Badenoch following her leadership contest victory, similarly fails to provide innovative solutions to the party’s difficulties.
Discussions about electoral pacts often obscure a larger concern: the effectiveness of the UK’s voting system in translating public sentiment into equitable parliamentary representation. Current evidence suggests inadequacies in this system, as shown by the disparity between Labour’s substantial Commons majority and its relatively modest national vote share, highlighting an ongoing disintegration of the entrenched two-party political landscape.
Jenrick’s recognition of the implications for third-placed parties forming a government is noteworthy, yet Conservative efforts may be more effectively directed toward understanding the reasons for their significant drop in support during their time in office, which has now left them struggling even to serve as the primary opposition party.
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Source
www.theguardian.com