Photo credit: www.sciencedaily.com
What will be the impact on strawberry yields as extreme heat disrupts pollination? How much will timber production be affected if a significant windstorm devastates forests? What will happen to the recreational value of Colorado’s mountainous regions in the wake of severe wildfires?
These crucial inquiries are addressed by a newly developed computer simulation, created in partnership with a researcher from CU Boulder. In research published on March 5 in Nature Ecology & Evolution, a team of scientists introduced a modeling framework designed to analyze the repercussions of extreme weather events—intensified by climate change—on ecosystems and the vital services they provide to society.
The findings indicate that a forest in Minnesota might experience a loss of timber revenue by as much as 50% following a severe windstorm.
“With the ongoing effects of climate change, it is essential to integrate the consequences of extreme phenomena like mega-fires and hurricanes into our understanding of ecosystem benefits,” remarked Laura Dee, the principal author of the study and an associate professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. “This research represents a vital progression toward forecasting the implications for ecosystem services, enabling us to adapt our management practices effectively.”
The concept of “ecosystem services,” also referred to as “nature’s contributions to people,” encompasses the crucial roles that ecosystems perform to sustain human life and promote well-being. Examples include how tree roots filter water, insects facilitate crop pollination, and forests sequester carbon to mitigate climate change effects. In addition to these practical benefits, natural landscapes such as mountains, lakes, and oceans provide recreational opportunities and hold cultural importance for various communities.
Traditionally, models predicting ecosystem responses to climate variation have tended to assume that changes occur gradually. For instance, they might examine a steady rise in global temperatures of up to 1.5°C. However, the increasing prevalence and intensity of extreme weather events—such as wildfires and floods—have made the effects of sudden disturbances increasingly critical to understand.
Dee and her research team devised a novel mathematical model that examines how the likelihood of extreme weather influences particular species and the ecosystem services they generate, alongside how these services are valued by people.
In demonstrating the model’s capabilities, the researchers applied it to project the potential impacts of extreme windstorms on a mid-latitude forest in northern Minnesota. The model assessed how different tree species respond to wind based on their resilience and economic value. For instance, thick white cedar trees demonstrate greater resistance to windstorms compared to balsam firs, which, despite being more vulnerable, can command higher market prices.
The simulation suggested that the potential damage from a windstorm, depending on its severity, could lead to a reduction of the forest’s total timber value by anywhere from 23% to 50%, while also adversely affecting recreational activities such as hiking and camping.
According to Dee, land managers and researchers can leverage this model to examine the effects of various disturbances, ranging from droughts to the introduction of invasive species.
Dee’s research group at CU Boulder further investigates the use of prescribed fire strategies—intentionally igniting specific areas under controlled conditions—as a means to minimize wildfire risks in Colorado. This innovative model also assists in determining priority areas for such controlled burns, aiming for maximal reductions in fire hazards while considering the additional advantages trees provide, such as carbon dioxide absorption and water filtration.
“The contributions of nature to human well-being are often undervalued and frequently overlooked in key decision-making processes related to land management policies,” Dee noted.
The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations announced last Tuesday that over 150 exceptional extreme weather events occurred globally last year. As these disturbances continue to escalate, Dee emphasized the necessity for future Gross Domestic Product assessments to incorporate the ramifications of climate change.
“Neglecting the rising challenges posed by extreme weather events could lead to losses that surpass our current understanding,” she cautioned.
Source
www.sciencedaily.com