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Two prominent actors from The Last of Us have experienced a notable rise in their Emmy odds this week according to Gold Derby.
Pedro Pascal has moved up from fourth to third place in the Best Drama Actor category, following a dramatic confrontation involving his character, Joel, in the second episode of Season 2. In contrast, Isabela Merced, a new addition to the cast playing the role of the independent survivor Dina, has improved her position from ninth to eighth place in the Best Drama Supporting Actress category. This nomination could mark Pascal’s fourth career Emmy nomination, given his prior nominations in 2023 for his performances in The Last of Us, Saturday Night Live, and Patagonia. Merced, on the other hand, is aiming for her first nomination.
Bella Ramsey, who leads the series, maintains a strong position at second in the Best Drama Actress category, trailing Kathy Bates (Matlock), who has held the top spot since tracking began for the 2025 Emmys. Ramsey’s character Ellie faces new challenges as she learns to navigate life without her father figure. A win for either Bates or Ramsey would set a record—Bates would be the oldest winner in this category at age 77, while Ramsey could become the youngest at 21.
In its inaugural season, The Last of Us garnered 24 Emmy nominations and secured eight wins, including accolades for guest performances by Nick Offerman and Storm Reid, as well as categories like main title design and visual effects. Both Pascal and Ramsey received nominations for lead roles; however, analysts are currently discussing whether Pascal should be categorized as a supporting actor due to his comparatively limited screen time.
Other significant shifts in this week’s Emmy race include The Perfect Couple moving from the limited series category to drama, and Ari Graynor (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) transitioning from supporting to lead.
SEE the 2025 Emmy Awards calendar for key dates.
Highlighted below are Gold Derby’s current Emmy predictions across 16 major categories, as of April 29. Historical tracking of the races can be viewed through previous snapshots from March 19, March 28, April 7, April 15, and April 23.
The Emmy odds presented by Gold Derby are derived from a compilation of forecasts from over 2,300 participants, including media experts and dedicated users who contribute to our prediction community. Follow the evolving Emmy predictions through our detailed charts and graphs and engage with discussions in our TV forums.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 9/2
2. The Last of Us — 5/1
3. The Pitt — 6/1
4. The White Lotus — 7/1
5. Slow Horses — 17/2
6. The Diplomat — 19/2
7. Andor — 13/1
8. Squid Game — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Paradise, The Handmaid’s Tale, House of the Dragon, The Day of the Jackal, Industry, Yellowjackets
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 7/2
2. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) — 4/1
3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 9/2
4. Britt Lower (Severance) — 5/1
5. Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) — 9/1
6. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — 11/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Keira Knightley (Black Doves), Lashana Lynch (The Day of the Jackal), Helen Mirren (1923), Carrie Preston (Elsbeth), Myha’la Herrold (Industry), Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adam Scott (Severance) — 71/20
2. Noah Wyle (The Pitt) — 4/1
3. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) — 11/2
4. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 11/2
5. Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) — 13/2
6. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Diego Luna (Andor), Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat), Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light), Billy Bob Thornton (Landman)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Carrie Coon (The White Lotus) — 4/1
2. Parker Posey (The White Lotus) — 5/1
3. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 6/1
4. Kaitlyn Dever (The Last of Us) — 17/2
5. Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus) — 19/2
6. Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) — 23/2
7. Patricia Arquette (Severance) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Isabela Merced (The Last of Us), Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses), Taylor Dearden (The Pitt), Leslie Bibb (The White Lotus), Dichen Lachman (Severance), Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) — 4/1
2. John Turturro (Severance) — 9/2
3. Tramell Tillman (Severance) — 11/2
4. Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) — 7/1
5. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) — 8/1
6. Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus) — 19/2
7. Patrick Schwarzenegger (The White Lotus) — 20/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us), Patrick Ball (The Pitt), Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses), Zach Cherry (Severance), Ken Leung (Industry), James Marsden (Paradise)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hacks — 39/10
2. The Bear — 13/2
3. The Studio — 13/2
4. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1
5. Abbott Elementary — 17/2
6. Shrinking — 10/1
7. Nobody Wants This — 13/1
8. What We Do in the Shadows — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Four Seasons, A Man on the Inside, The Residence, Poker Face, Somebody Somewhere, The Righteous Gemstones
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 31/10
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 4/1
3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 5/1
4. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 15/2
5. Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — 9/1
6. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Tina Fey (The Four Seasons), Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along), Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows), Wendi McLendon-Covey (St. Denis Medical)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 69/20
2. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 4/1
3. Seth Rogen (The Studio) — 5/1
4. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 11/2
5. Jason Segel (Shrinking) — 8/1
6. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) — 9/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside), Steve Carell (The Four Seasons), Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), Luke Kirby (Étoile), David Alan Grier (St. Denis Medical), Nathan Lane (Mid-Century Modern)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) — 3/1
2. Liza Cólon-Zayas (The Bear) — 9/2
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — 13/2
4. Jessica Williams (Shrinking) — 15/2
5. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) — 9/1
6. Catherine O’Hara (The Studio) — 9/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building), Meg Stalter (Hacks), Patti LuPone (Agatha All Along), Kathryn Hahn (The Studio), Linda Lavin (Mid-Century Modern), Susan Kelechi Watson (The Residence)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) — 18/5
2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 39/10
3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks) — 9/2
4. Michael Urie (Shrinking) — 7/1
5. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) — 15/2
6. Ike Barinholtz (The Studio) — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Brett Goldstein (Shrinking), Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live), Giancarlo Esposito (The Residence), Timothy Simons (Nobody Wants This)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adolescence — 83/50
2. The Penguin — 71/20
3. Dying for Sex — 13/2
4. Disclaimer — 10/1
5. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Say Nothing, Black Mirror, Presumed Innocent, La Maquina, Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist, Zero Day
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Rebel Ridge — 5/2
2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 59/20
3. Mountainhead — 6/1
4. Out of My Mind — 6/1
5. Am I OK? — 21/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Gorge, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat, Swiped, G20, The Parenting, Star Trek: Section 31
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 43/20
2. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) — 13/5
3. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 9/2
4. Kaitlyn Dever (Apple Cider Vinegar) — 23/2
5. Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ellen Pompeo (Good American Family), Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing), Julianne Moore (Sirens), Uzo Aduba (The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat), Ari Graynor (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Rashida Jones (Black Mirror)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 83/50
2. Stephen Graham (Adolescence) — 37/10
3. Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 13/2
4. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 13/2
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) — 23/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Nicholas Alexander Chavez (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror), Gael Garcia Bernal (La Maquina), Josh Andres Rivera (American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Erin Doherty (Adolescence) — 9/2
2. Deirdre O’Connell (The Penguin) — 5/1
3. Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex) — 11/2
4. Lesley Manville (Disclaimer) — 7/1
5. Sissy Spacek (Dying for Sex) — 15/2
6. Chloe Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 13/1
7. Christine Tremarco (Adolescence) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent), Angela Bassett (Zero Day), Leila George (Disclaimer), Betty Gilpin (Three Women), Jacki Weaver (Clipped), Shohreh Aghdashloo (The Penguin)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Owen Cooper (Adolescence) — 37/10
2. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 9/2
3. Rhenzy Feliz (The Penguin) — 17/2
4. Ashley Walters (Adolescence) — 11/1
5. Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent) — 14/1
6. Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex) — 14/1
7. Kodi Smit-McPhee (Disclaimer) — 25/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jesse Plemons (Zero Day), Brian Cox (The Parenting), Jay Duplass (Dying for Sex), Hugh Grant (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy), Clancy Brown (The Penguin), Diego Luna (La Maquina)
Source
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