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Climate experts are expressing deep concern over Donald Trump’s recent election victory, labeling it a significant setback for global climate initiatives. Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief, articulated her worries about the implications of Trump’s leadership on climate action.
Upon taking office, Trump promptly withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, a key international accord aimed at combating climate change. His administration also took steps to hinder US scientists’ engagement in international climate research and dismantled national targets for electric vehicle production.
Furthermore, Trump has publicly dismissed his predecessor’s green technology efforts as a “green new scam.” Nonetheless, he is actively pursuing collaboration with Ukrainian leadership regarding critical minerals and has shown interest in resource-rich areas in Greenland and Canada.
Trump’s emphasis on securing critical mineral supply chains has garnered attention, as these resources are essential not only for aerospace and defense industries but also for the production of green technologies.
The Influence of Elon Musk
Elon Musk, a pivotal figure in the realm of green technology through his roles at SpaceX and Tesla, recognizes the importance of critical minerals such as graphite, lithium, and nickel. These elements are fundamental in the production of electric vehicles, batteries, and aerospace components.
Elizabeth Holley, an associate professor at the Colorado School of Mines, highlights that critical minerals vary by country but typically include rare earth elements and metals like lithium. The demand for lithium, for instance, surged by 30% in 2023, largely driven by the burgeoning clean energy and electric vehicle markets. Projections from the International Energy Agency suggest that in the next two decades, these sectors will account for the majority of lithium and cobalt demand.
Musk has previously voiced concerns regarding the soaring price of lithium, even indicating that Tesla might need to directly engage in mining efforts if prices remain high.
The US and Global Competition
A recent report from a US Government Select Committee pointed out the vulnerabilities of America’s reliance on foreign sources for rare earth elements and critical minerals. It cautioned that this dependency, particularly on China, poses significant risks to national security and advanced technology production.
China’s early investments in green technology have positioned it as a leader in critical mineral supply chains. Bob Ward, policy director at the London School of Economics, noted that China’s strategic decisions over the past decade have allowed it to dominate the market for renewables and electric vehicles.
Daisy Jennings-Gray from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence explains that critical minerals may not be evenly distributed globally. Some, like lithium, are plentiful; however, logistical and geological challenges often complicate their extraction. In contrast, dependence on single-country sources, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, increases vulnerability to market fluctuations due to geopolitical instability.
China currently dominates both the production and processing of rare earths, accounting for approximately 60% of global production and about 90% of processing capabilities. Gracelin Baskaran, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized that China’s strategic foresight in this area has enabled it to effectively control supply chains, particularly after the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration.
Experts like Christopher Knittel from MIT argue that Trump’s motivations are likely rooted in a desire to regain competitiveness against China in the critical minerals market, which could inadvertently enhance US green technology efforts.
A Cautionary Message for the US
Initially, the transition to green energy was seen as a challenge for many nations, as mentioned by Bob Ward. Under the Biden administration, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was implemented to provide incentives for green technologies, facilitating nearly $493 billion in investments in the US green sector by August 2024.
However, there has been limited focus on upstream processes such as critical mineral procurement, with efforts primarily centered around manufacturing. Recent policy shifts under Trump’s administration indicate a pivot towards securing critical mineral agreements, with the IRA laying groundwork for trade and supply chains to favor allied nations.
Potential Policy Shifts Ahead
Rumors suggest that Trump might introduce a “Critical Minerals Executive Order” aimed at bolstering investment in domestic mineral extraction and processing capacity. Details of this order remain unclear, but potential measures could include fast-tracking permits and expanding infrastructure for mining operations.
Experts like Professor Willy Shih of Harvard Business School caution that developing new mining and processing facilities is a complex, time-consuming venture, often requiring 10 years or more to establish.
Despite Trump’s established opposition to the IRA, its success in Republican-dominated states has led some senators to advocate for its continuation, particularly as election cycles draw near. Clean Investment Monitor data shows that 77% of green industry investments have recently flowed to Republican-held states.
Dr. Knittel highlights the importance of maintaining tax incentives for industries in states like Georgia, which is rapidly becoming a hub for battery production. Missing out on these incentives could pose electoral risks for representatives facing re-election in 2026.
Investment confidence remains robust, according to Carl Fleming, a former advisor in the Biden administration, who has noted a busy practice since the IRA’s introduction. He believes there is a recognition of the need to blend various energy sources to align with “America First” energy policies.
Nonetheless, the US’s diminished presence on the international climate stage raises concerns for experts. Collaboration and leadership are perceived as vital for advancing global climate agreement initiatives. For Trump, the priority appears economically driven, but there remains an intersection between enhancing green technologies and boosting economic outcomes.
Source
www.bbc.com