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As voters prepare for the upcoming Election Day in Elmwood-Transcona, they will encounter a familiar slate of candidates. The major parties are represented by the same individuals who contested the September byelection: Leila Dance from the NDP, Colin Reynolds from the Conservative Party, and Ian MacIntyre from the Liberal Party. In the previous byelection, the NDP secured the seat, albeit by a narrow margin over the Conservatives.
Malcolm Bird, an associate professor of political science at the University of Winnipeg, anticipates another closely contested race. “This is a crucial election for both parties, particularly the NDP, which needs to maintain this seat,” Bird commented. “Given their low standings in the polls, every seat is critical for them.”
Historically, Elmwood-Transcona has been an NDP bastion since its inception in 2004, but Bird suggests that it could realistically shift to the Conservatives this time. In September’s byelection, Dance secured the win against Reynolds, garnering 48 percent of the vote compared to Reynolds’ 44 percent, a difference of less than 1,200 votes.
While Reynolds was unavailable for an interview recently, Dance, a first-time Member of Parliament, is riding high on the momentum from her previous victory. She emphasizes her deep ties to the community, stating, “Having lived here my entire life, I have invested the last two decades in various community efforts, and I will continue to do so.”
Dance’s campaign is centered around addressing urgent issues such as the rising cost of living and healthcare accessibility. Her proposals include implementing price caps and eliminating GST on essential groceries and household necessities, as well as increasing the number of available family doctors and reducing emergency room wait times. She also highlights the trade tensions with the United States as a significant concern among constituents, asserting that the NDP has a robust strategy to alleviate the repercussions for Canadians. “Collaboration across different government levels is essential to present a united front,” she said, while stressing the importance of diversifying trade relationships beyond reliance on the U.S.
On the other hand, Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre, who finished a distant third in the previous byelection with less than 5 percent of the votes, reports an uptick in requests for campaign signs this time. He expresses optimism due to rising support for the Liberals under leader Mark Carney. “Conversations with other candidates indicate a positive shift for our party,” MacIntyre remarked. “A lot can change in six months, and we have witnessed that.” He supports reciprocal tariffs in response to U.S. policies and also aims to enhance healthcare by expanding pharmacare and expediting training for immigrants in healthcare roles.
Nevertheless, Bird asserts that the competition will primarily remain between the NDP and Conservatives, as has been typical in past elections for this riding. Both parties are striving to attract voters from each other’s bases, but Bird posits that any potential strategic voting is likely to favor the NDP. “It’s plausible that some Liberal supporters may choose to back the NDP to prevent a Conservative victory, sensing that the Liberals have slim chances in this riding,” Bird explained.
Advanced polling is scheduled to commence on April 18th, with Election Day set for April 28th.
Source
globalnews.ca