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Federal Election Tightens as Polls Show Narrowing Gap

The competition to determine Canada’s next government has intensified as the federal election campaign approaches the final week, according to a recent poll by Ipsos.

This latest poll, commissioned exclusively for Global News, reveals that while the Liberal Party continues to hold the lead, the margin has narrowed significantly. Currently, the Liberals are ahead by just three points over the Conservatives, who are gaining momentum as the election date nears.

Survey results indicate that 41% of participants would vote for the Liberals, a slight decline from last week’s figures, while 38% indicated support for the Conservatives after a two-point increase. Support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) rose to 12%, and the Bloc Quebecois slipped to 5% nationally (25% in Quebec). Both the Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada garnered 2% each.

This three-point gap between the leading parties is now within the poll’s margin of error of 3.8%, marking the tightest race observed since the campaign commenced last month.

Notably, over half of the respondents expressed a preference for a majority government, contrasting with 20% who favored a minority government. However, Ipsos cautioned that the narrowing race diminishes the likelihood of a majority outcome.

Two weeks prior, the Liberals enjoyed a commanding 12-point lead, showcasing a remarkable shift for a party that had struggled under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.

Mark Carney’s ascension as the Liberal leader appears to have rejuvenated the party’s standing, particularly amidst ongoing concerns regarding the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies on Canada. Ipsos polling has shown that many voters perceive the Liberals as the more capable party to handle such challenges.

In contrast, the Conservatives have focused on issues related to affordability, housing, and the economy, which have been increasingly resonating with voters as the campaign has progressed.

“As the focus shifts away from Trump, we are returning to domestic matters, and particularly affordable living, which tends to favor the Conservatives,” remarked Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. While Trump has moderated his approach towards Canada since a phone conversation with Carney, his rhetoric still poses challenges for the Liberals.

As for leadership preferences, Carney is currently favored over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, with 41% supporting Carney compared to 36% for Poilievre. Voter sentiments regarding the recent leaders’ debates reveal that 57% of Canadians are aware of the events, with opinions split on who performed better.

According to the Ipsos data, around one-third of viewers rated both leaders as the winners of the English-language debate, with Carney slightly ahead at 33% versus Poilievre at 30%. In the French-language debate, 24% saw Poilievre as the victor, compared to 18% for Carney.

Debate Outcomes and Voter Sentiments

Despite the Conservatives’ upward trajectory, 45% of those who engaged with the debates believe the Liberals have gained the most popularity recently, against 29% who think the Conservatives made progress. This observation suggests an emerging dynamic where the Conservatives are beginning to be viewed as the underdogs.

Public Perception of Leaders

Poll results indicate that Carney remains the most positively regarded leader among voters. He is seen as best equipped to manage economic challenges, represent Canada internationally, and confront Trump—significantly outpacing Poilievre in these areas. Nevertheless, Carney’s perceived trustworthiness has dipped, with only 27% of respondents considering him reliable, a drop of five points over the past fortnight.

Conversely, Poilievre has gained ground in voter perception regarding his commitment to middle-class interests, now at 28%, while Carney’s corresponding support has declined to 24%. Poilievre is also closing in on perceptions around prudent fiscal management.

Despite these shifts, Poilievre still excels in several negative perceptions, including being seen as having a hidden agenda or as someone willing to do anything for electoral gain. Voter approval is split regarding whether the Liberals deserve another term in office, with 46% in favor and 54% seeking a change.

Regionally, the Conservatives narrowly lead the Liberals in British Columbia and maintain substantial support in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Liberals are, however, still favored in all other regions, including Quebec where the Bloc Quebecois holds a competitive position.

Bricker observed that the electoral landscape remains uncertain as both parties vie for crucial votes, complicating predictions for a majority or minority governance scenario as the race enters its final stages.

These insights are based on an Ipsos poll conducted from April 17 to 19, 2025, engaging a representative sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18 and older. Various methods were employed to ensure demographic balancing in line with the adult population as per census data.

Source
globalnews.ca