Photo credit: www.cnbc.com
TikTok’s Future in the U.S.: Potential Sale and Estimated Valuation
Business leaders, particularly high-profile figures like Elon Musk, may need to prepare for substantial financial commitments if ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, opts to sell the platform’s U.S. operations. Recent developments have heightened speculation regarding TikTok’s status in the American market, particularly in light of potential regulatory actions.
The app faces the risk of a ban in the United States if a Supreme Court ruling upholds a national security law that could penalize tech giants like Apple and Google for hosting TikTok after a specified deadline. Although ByteDance has not publicly confirmed intentions to divest from TikTok’s U.S. segment, there have been discussions among Chinese officials regarding potential sale scenarios, including a bid from Musk, as reported by Bloomberg News on Monday.
If ByteDance pursues a sale, estimates suggest that interested buyers may have to invest between $40 billion and $50 billion. This valuation comes from CFRA Research Senior Vice President Angelo Zino, who derived these figures based on TikTok’s user demographics and revenue, comparing it against its competitors.
Currently, TikTok boasts approximately 115 million monthly mobile users in the United States, placing it behind Instagram, which has 131 million users. According to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower, TikTok surpasses platforms like Snapchat, Pinterest, and Reddit, which have 96 million, 74 million, and 32 million U.S. users, respectively.
Zino’s valuation represents a decline from the earlier estimate of over $60 billion made in March 2024, prior to the passage of a national security bill that President Biden signed into law shortly thereafter. The decrease is attributed to the app’s ongoing geopolitical challenges and a general contraction in industry multiples, as Zino highlighted in an email to CNBC. Importantly, his valuation does not factor in TikTok’s prized recommendation algorithms, which are seen as vital to its operational success. These algorithms, along with their connections to China, are central to the U.S. government’s claims of a potential national security threat.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have pegged TikTok’s U.S. valuation even lower, between $30 billion and $35 billion, as reported in their July findings. They underscored that the value of the unit would likely be diminished due to the nature of a “forced sale” under current circumstances.
Additionally, analysts have expressed concerns that locating a buyer who can navigate both the financial requirements and rigorous regulatory scrutiny surrounding data privacy will be a significant challenge. This could hinder the growth of TikTok’s advertising business moving forward.
A consortium led by billionaire Frank McCourt and O’Leary Ventures Chairman Kevin O’Leary has expressed interest in acquiring TikTok, proposing an offer of up to $20 billion for the U.S. assets, excluding the underlying algorithm.
O’Leary noted that unlike a potential bid from Musk, which would likely attract regulatory scrutiny, their group’s proposal would avoid such issues. During a recent interview with Fox News, O’Leary acknowledged his admiration for Musk but expressed skepticism about the feasibility of such a regulatory environment allowing Musk’s acquisition.
As of now, TikTok, X, and O’Leary Ventures have not provided comments regarding the ongoing discussions and bids.
Watch: Chinese TikTok alternative surges
Source
www.cnbc.com