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Welcome to Tony Talk, a column where contributors from Gold Derby, Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan, provide insights related to the Tony Awards. This week, they explore their nearly final predictions for the 2025 nominations.
David Buchanan: Sam, our weekly discussions over the last two months about the Tony Awards have been enlightening, but with the increasing number of shows making their debut this spring, my confidence is waning! The competition across musical and play categories appears especially fierce this year. Let’s break it down category by category, focusing on our certainties, potential snubs, and unexpected choices.
Best Musical
Buchanan: My confidence rests solidly with Maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw. They stand out as the top two shows that have garnered outstanding reviews. Following them closely are Operation Mincemeat and Death Becomes Her. The fifth slot remains a challenging decision for me, as I weigh my options among Buena Vista Social Club, Real Women Have Curves, and the ever-adored Old Friends by Stephen Sondheim. Though a revue like Sondheim’s might face challenges, it moved me in ways I didn’t expect.
Sam Eckmann: I agree with you on Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, and Death Becomes Her as secure options. I fully expect Real Women Have Curves: The Musical to secure a nomination as well, given the infectious joy evident in the James Earl Jones Theatre, especially considering the importance of its message in today’s political landscape. I’ve chosen to drop Operation Mincemeat from my lineup, as I feel that the unique shows emerging from Broadway may be favored more by the community. Hence, I’m putting in Buena Vista Social Club instead, a lively production that offers an energetic experience. I doubt a revue will make it to the forefront this year.
Best Play
Eckmann: The leaders in this category are Oh, Mary! and John Proctor Is the Villain. Closed productions like Pulitzer Prize-winning English and The Hills of California also remain highly regarded. However, I feel Purpose may be losing momentum, making it vulnerable in the competition. Potential contenders also include Good Night, and Good Luck, The Picture of Dorian Gray, or Stranger Things: The First Shadow, which while stylish, may lack in writing compared to others. I’m holding my ground with Purpose, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Leslye Headland‘s Cult of Love knock on the door. Any changes to your favorites?
Buchanan: Those same five are on my list too. I feel confident about Purpose as well. Your observation regarding the timing of its opening possibly affecting buzz is spot on. Branden Jacobs-Jenkins has received glowing reviews; I’d be surprised if he were overlooked for such a well-received piece. Of the alternatives you mentioned, Good Night, and Good Luck might slip into the lineup due to its timely themes.
Best Musical Revival
Buchanan: This category appears to offer a solid top four with Sunset Boulevard and Gypsy as clear frontrunners. They’d have to encounter major setbacks to miss. Following them, I have Pirates! The Penzance Musical and Floyd Collins. Do you see a place for Once Upon a Mattress in this mix?
Eckmann: I’m siding with the predicted top four. Once Upon a Mattress was well-received, particularly for its vibrant comedic performances. Should it bump something, I suspect it could be Floyd Collins, despite its loyal fan base; it’s a beloved musical score that should attract recognition.
Best Play Revival
Buchanan: In this tightly contested category, we only have four slots available while I predict at least six strong contenders. Eureka Day and Yellow Face are leading the charge, both highly praised even though they are closed now. Meanwhile, Glengarry Glen Ross has standout performances, and for my fourth choice, I’m betting on Our Town rather than Othello, which, despite star power, didn’t receive as favorable notices. It’s been a pathos-laden experience.
Eckmann: The fourth spot is indeed a puzzle. I’ve lost enthusiasm for Othello too, and I’m torn on a replacement. Our Town remains a classic option, yet it seems to be fading from current discussions. I’m leaning towards a bold choice like Romeo + Juliet, which may resonate for its innovative direction and engagement with younger audiences.
Best Actor (Musical)
Eckmann: Reflecting on Floyd Collins, I believe Jeremy Jordan is poised for a strong return to the Tony nominations since his time in Newsies. Darren Criss and Jonathan Groff are likely for their engaging roles in Maybe Happy Ending and Just in Time, respectively. While Sunset Boulevard might center on Norma Desmond, Tom Francis delivers a memorable performance. The final slot is up for grabs between Andrew Durand (Dead Outlaw) and David Hyde Pierce (Pirates! The Penzance Musical).
Buchanan: We seem to be in agreement here! Predicting the winner feels more challenging than selecting the nominees. Although it feels odd not to see any performers from Pirates! potentially nominated, it’s hard to displace leading contenders like Pierce. I’m quite certain Durand will secure a spot given his strong reviews.
Best Actress (Musical)
Buchanan: This category has the potential for more than five nominees, which I find incredibly exciting. Nicole Scherzinger and Audra McDonald are locks, but the competition grows fierce among Death Becomes Her‘s Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard. If one gets a nomination, it could limit the chances for Maybe Happy Ending‘s Helen J Shen or Boop! The Musical‘s Jasmine Amy Rogers.
Eckmann: This truly feels like a “choose your favorite” situation. Despite the excitement, I worry that the co-leads could hinder Hilty and Simard’s nominations. There’s a significant chance that either Tatianna Córdoba from Real Women Have Curves or others could sneak in, but currently, I’m sticking with all four favorites plus Rogers for her standout role. Seeing someone like Sutton Foster or Robyn Hurder miss out due to such competition is tough.
Best Actor (Play)
Eckmann: This category has me on edge. Cole Escola is my reliable pick for Oh, Mary!, but beyond that, the competition is hazy. Jake Gyllenhaal might be nominated for his role in Othello, which was appreciated despite mixed reviews. My other picks are Jon Michael Hill (Purpose), Kit Connor (Romeo + Juliet), and Louis McCartney (Stranger Things: The First Shadow).
Buchanan: We align closely here. I feel firm about Escola and Gyllenhaal, and I’m including Hill and Connor as well given their past recognition. I’m leaning towards George Clooney for Glengarry Glen Ross, as his performance adds depth to the ensemble.
Best Actress (Play)
Eckmann: This category is clearer, with Sarah Snook and Laura Donnelly leading the charge. Mia Farrow should secure a nomination for her nuanced performance in The Roommate as well, while I see Sadie Sink (John Proctor Is the Villain) and LaTanya Richardson Jackson (Purpose) rounding out my list. Can you see anyone else breaking through here?
Buchanan: I’m sticking with your five! While I’m confident in Sink, her nomination feels less secure than the others, given the ensemble nature of Purpose. Patti LuPone could leap in as a strong contender, capturing attention from her engaging interviews, but I’ll hold onto Best for now given her impactful performance.
Best Featured Actress (Musical)
Buchanan: This category is particularly unpredictable! I’m listing who I believe are the top contenders, but flexibility is key as we approach the nominations. I foresee Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club), Joy Woods for Gypsy, Bernadette Peters (Old Friends), Julia Knitel (Dead Outlaw), and Jinx Monsoon (Pirates! The Penzance Musical). How do your thoughts differ?
Eckmann: Belcon is my singular assurance here. I see Monsoon positioned well for a nomination, with Justina Machado also potentially emerging in the final slot. It’s difficult to predict nominations in such a diverse category.
Best Featured Actor (Musical)
Buchanan: Right now, I’m confident about Jak Malone’s nomination for his performance in Operation Mincemeat, with a strong possibility of winning. Following him, I expect to see Danny Burstein for Gypsy, Thom Sesma for Dead Outlaw, and Christopher Sieber for Death Becomes Her. After re-evaluating eligibility, I have made room for Jeb Brown from Dead Outlaw in place of David Thaxton.
Eckmann: I align with your predictions for Malone, Burstein, Sieber, and Brown. However, Brown’s move to featured may negatively impact Sesma’s chances. I believe Brooks Ashmanskas from Smash deserves a spot for his outstanding comedic contribution, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michael Urie sneak in for his role in Once Upon a Mattress.
Best Featured Actor (Play)
Eckmann: How Glengarry Glen Ross is perceived could have a huge impact here. Kieran Culkin had mixed reactions, yet he remains a strong contender for a nomination alongside Bob Odenkirk. I also predict Conrad Ricamora and James Scully from Oh, Mary! to make it in, along with Francis Jue from Yellow Face. What are your predictions?
Buchanan: I share the uncertainty regarding Glengarry. Although Bill Burr had a striking performance deserving of recognition, I’m keeping him on my list due to his unforgettable moments. I also foresee Gabriel Ebert from John Proctor gaining attention for a nuanced portrayal, especially if nominating bodies favor his depth.
Best Featured Actress (Play)
Buchanan: We face a familiar dilemma in this category with numerous remarkable performances! However, I’m choosing Kara Young for Purpose, Jessica Hecht for Eureka Day, Bianca Leigh for Oh, Mary!, Leanne Best for The Hills of California, and Amalia Yoo for John Proctor Is the Villain. I can see Fina Strazza making an entrance too. What about you, do you consider any performers from English here?
Eckmann: I’m agreeing with your choices! Though I’m tempted to include either Marjan Neshat or Tala Ashe, who have received accolades, I’m holding steady for now as there’s a lot of movement leading up to the nominations.
For complete predictions across 17 Tony Awards categories, check out the entries from David Buchanan and Sam Eckmann.
Source
www.goldderby.com