Photo credit: www.theguardian.com
For nearly two weeks, Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been navigating the Coral Sea. Earlier on Sunday, it traversed the Tropic of Capricorn, veering significantly off the usual trajectory that cyclones typically follow toward the northern Queensland coastline.
Weather experts anticipate that Alfred will continue its slow migration south until Tuesday before making an unpredictable turn back towards the densely populated southeastern Queensland coastline. By Tuesday, communities along the southeastern coast and extending into northeastern New South Wales were bracing for potential gale-force winds reaching up to 120 km/h.
Authorities have issued warnings about heavy rainfall anticipated to cause dangerous flash flooding and unusually high tides, increasing risks for residents in the affected regions.
When is Tropical Cyclone Alfred going to hit?
The Bureau of Meteorology’s forecasters predicted on Tuesday that Tropical Cyclone Alfred could veer towards the southeast Queensland coast later that day, with potential landfall expected as a category two storm by late Thursday or early Friday morning.
Residents from Sandy Cape down to Grafton, including major areas such as Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Byron Bay, have been placed in a watch zone. However, it’s important to note that forecasts are subject to change, and residents should remain vigilant for updates regarding any developments that may affect their areas.
Potentially life-threatening floods
In addition to strong winds and storm surges, communities are on alert for heavy rain that could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Alfred has the potential to release as much as a meter of rain over mountainous regions and hinterlands in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales, as highlighted by Weatherzone’s Anthony Sharwood.
Sharwood emphasized, “This is an enormous amount of rain—Brisbane’s annual rainfall is just over a meter,” illustrating the gravity of the situation. As of Tuesday morning, the bureau was predicting maximum rainfall totals of up to 480 mm for Brisbane from Wednesday to Sunday, while the Gold Coast could see as much as 545 mm during the same period.
Why is this a big deal?
Typically, tropical cyclones are confined to tropical regions, making the prospect of Alfred reaching the coast hundreds of kilometers south of the tropics particularly concerning. More than 4 million people live in the cyclone’s potential path, primarily around major urban centers like Brisbane, which may not be fully equipped to handle such a storm’s impact.
Residents in northern Queensland and the Northern Territory generally have extensive experience with cyclone preparedness, often equipped with emergency kits and resilient building structures. In contrast, while Brisbane is no stranger to storms, its past experiences with severe flooding—occurring in 2011, 2017, and 2022—indicate that it struggles to cope with such weather challenges. Authorities are deeply concerned about the forecasted rainfall of 300 mm to 600 mm in certain areas, especially after a notably wet summer.
This level of caution regarding a cyclone this far from landfall is unusual, and officials are treating it with the utmost seriousness.
When was the last cyclone in Brisbane?
While it is uncommon for tropical cyclones to make landfall south of the tropics, it has happened before. The closest one was Tropical Cyclone Nancy in 1990, which approached Brisbane but ultimately turned southward without making landfall.
Historical events include Tropical Cyclone Wanda, which caused significant flooding in Brisbane in 1974, and another cyclone that affected the coastline near Tweed Heads in 1954. It is far more frequent for cyclones to cross north of the Tropic of Capricorn and subsequently weaken as they move inland, as was the case with Cyclone Debbie in 2017.
How should people prepare?
The Queensland government provides a preparation guide that encourages residents to assemble an emergency kit containing enough supplies to last three days during a power outage.
Additionally, it is advisable for residents to secure or store away any loose items that could become hazardous in high winds.
Will schools and services be closed?
As of now, it is too early to determine the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on schools or other services. The Queensland government has set up a dashboard to inform parents and families about any school closures.
Brisbane City Council has announced that all CityCat and ferry services will be suspended starting Monday night until further notice to ensure vessel safety. Eleven CityCats will be taken out of the water, and the remaining vessels will be secured in protected berths, with smaller vessels moored safely at a marina.
The Lord Mayor, Adrian Schrinner, stated, “While this will inconvenience some, ensuring the safety of passengers, crew, and vessels is our highest priority.” Other sections of the city’s public transport system remain operational.
Theme parks close
Village Roadshow has announced that its Gold Coast theme parks, including Movie World, Sea World, and Wet’n’Wild, will operate normally on Tuesday but will shut down from Wednesday through Friday. The company assured that essential staff at Sea World will continue to work during this period to care for the animals.
Source
www.theguardian.com