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U.S. President Donald Trump is being closely monitored as traders work diligently on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) floor, particularly in light of the stock market’s performance during his initial tenure.
According to recent analysis, President Trump’s first 100 days in office have proven to be historically challenging for the stock market, marking the worst start for a president since the 1970s. The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 7.9% from Trump’s inauguration on January 20 to the market’s close on April 25. This performance ranks as the second-worst in the history of first hundred days, with only Richard Nixon’s presidency in 1973 faring worse, where the index plunged by 9.9% amid economic crises stemming from inflation-triggered policy changes.
Historical data shows that, on average, the S&P 500 enjoys a modest increase of 2.1% during the first 100 days for any sitting president, based on trends observed from post-election years between 1944 and 2020.
Initially following Trump’s election victory in November, the market experienced a surge, reaching all-time highs as investors anticipated substantial tax cuts and deregulation measures. Notably, the S&P 500 advanced by 3.7% from Election Day to Inauguration Day, reflecting a sense of optimism surrounding Trump’s business acumen.
However, this optimism quickly dissipated as the administration began to implement controversial policies, particularly an assertive trade approach perceived by many as potentially inflationary and economically destabilizing. The downturn intensified in April, when the S&P 500 lost 10% in just two days after Trump announced plans for reciprocal tariffs, briefly entering bear market territory. While the president later eased some concerns by granting countries a 90-day period for renegotiation, apprehensions about further declines linger in investor sentiment.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, remarked on the prevailing uncertainty, noting, “Everyone’s looking for this bottom here. I’m still thinking it’s a bear market rally, a near-term bounce kind of thing. I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet, with the lack of clarity and continuing uncertainty in Washington.”
As of now, the S&P 500 has returned to close at 5,525.21 after reaching a peak of 6,144.15 on February 19, essentially negating all gains seen after the election. With just two trading days remaining in this initial period, Trump has a narrow window to potentially improve his standing. A modest rally in the stock market could place him closer to matching George W. Bush’s 6.9% decline recorded during his first 100 days in 2001.
Source
www.cnbc.com