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A crane unloads peas imported from Canada at the Laizhou port area of Yantai Port in Yantai, China, on February 28, 2025.
The urgency surrounding trade agreements that the U.S. must negotiate, particularly with China, is growing. Trump’s former Treasury Secretary has warned about an “unsustainable” trade war fueled by tariffs. However, for U.S. agriculture, the repercussions of this trade conflict are already severe, triggering an economic crisis.
U.S. agricultural exporters report that the backlash against President Trump’s tariffs is adversely affecting them, particularly through a marked decline in Chinese purchases of American farm goods. This situation has resulted in canceled export orders and job losses. Peter Friedmann, the executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, highlighted this issue, stating, “We cannot merely describe the number of canceled purchases as a looming crisis; it has escalated into a full-blown crisis.”
Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed that China enacted its largest cancellation of pork orders since 2020, stopping a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork.
The AgTC indicated that its members are experiencing “massive” financial losses due to the ongoing trade war, based on incoming reports from various companies. A wood pulp and paperboard exporter, for example, disclosed the cancellation or delay of 6,400 metric tons, along with a backlog of 15 railcars experiencing “demurrage” fees due to their delayed movement.
Another exporter of grass seed reported receiving just two weeks’ notice of cancellation for eight loads, even though shipping arrangements had already been made. At a recent stakeholder meeting at the Port of Oakland, Executive Director Kristi McKenney warned about the significant impact that tariffs can have on the port’s cargo volume. This downturn, whether through reduced imports or retaliatory losses on exports, poses risks to employment stability and the economic wellbeing of the region.
McKenney emphasized the critical importance of U.S. agricultural exports, such as almonds, beef, pork, dairy, and recycled materials, many of which are directed toward Asian markets. With China being Oakland’s top import partner and a key player in its export trade, representing 29% of the port’s total traffic, any retaliatory tariffs could have serious implications. Unlike many U.S. ports that largely focus on imports, Oakland maintains a nearly equal balance between imports and exports, increasing its vulnerability to trade tensions.
The Port of Oakland stands as the premier refrigerated export gateway in the United States, facilitating nearly all containerized cargo traffic in Northern California. Commenting on the situation, Congresswoman Lateefah Simon voiced her support for trade policies that benefit both workers and consumers, rejecting “illogical and retaliatory trade wars.”
Agricultural exporters are increasingly concerned that there are no alternative markets capable of quickly absorbing the demand that China previously fulfilled, which is already exerting pressure on prices. One lumber exporter detailed how the situation has forced them to divert production and limit purchasing from independent vendors, resulting in a 20% drop in market value for certain products. They explained that the U.S. market, once stable, is now overwhelmed with inventory previously bound for China.
A forage exporter that supplies hay and straw to livestock operations abroad reported facing restrictions on export capacity due to 68 canceled shipments after President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” The tight freight space available has resulted in escalating costs, deeply affecting their pricing ability. “Being a high volume, low-value item, we cannot absorb dramatic increases in shipping costs,” the exporter indicated.
In addition to tariffs, agriculture is facing another significant challenge with the impending SHIPS Act, which mandates substantial port fees for Chinese-made vessels calling at U.S. ports, starting in the fall. Although bulk agriculture is exempt from these fees, containerized shipments—which include valuable exports such as refrigerated goods—are not. Friedmann stressed the need for an exemption, given the importance of containerized exports to the U.S. agricultural sector.
Currently, around 25% of U.S. agricultural exports by volume and nearly 55% by value are moved in containers. The U.S. Trade Representative did not provide a response regarding fee exemptions for containerized agriculture.
One hay exporter poignantly expressed their concerns, noting, “So much of our future lies in the hands of so few,” and urged decision-makers to carefully evaluate strategies to keep shipments moving while addressing trade imbalances.
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