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Potential Unicorn IPOs on the Horizon for 2025
According to the latest PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor report for Q4 2024, numerous U.S. unicorns—companies valued at over $1 billion—are poised to enter the public market in 2025.
PitchBook has developed a Venture Capital (VC) exit predictor, which utilizes machine learning alongside its comprehensive database of startups, funding rounds, and investors to gauge the likelihood of successful exits for various companies.
This tool quantifies the probability of outcomes for VC-backed firms, such as going public, being acquired, failing to exit, or achieving self-sufficiency. In order to provide a nuanced view of the VC market’s exit landscape, PitchBook has also integrated a proprietary extrapolation method that assesses undisclosed M&A transactions featured in their Private Equity and Global M&A reports.
Nizar Tarhuni, Executive Vice President of research and market intelligence at PitchBook, commented on the current state of the VC market: “While 2024 experienced a tangible increase in completed financings and overall investments, the rise of early-stage AI transactions at inflated valuations conceals a venture landscape that continues to face corrective challenges.”
Insights on the 2025 IPO Landscape
He emphasized the ongoing struggle with meaningful exits in the VC sector, citing discrepancies in buyer-seller valuations that have persisted due to inflated funding rounds in earlier investment cycles, as well as regulatory challenges that are suppressing market enthusiasm.
“Looking ahead to 2025, we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. An improved M&A and business-friendly environment in Washington, combined with a necessary period for startups and investors to adjust their expectations regarding valuations and deal structures, could potentially incentivize more capital to make its way out of the sidelines,” Tarhuni stated. “Nevertheless, fundraising activities might continue to be tepid, especially as emerging sectors appear to gain traction, competing for investment funds.”
In addition, Bobby Franklin, CEO of the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), shared a perspective of guarded optimism for VCs and entrepreneurs advancing into 2025, following a notable quarter with significant investment influx—the highest seen since mid-2022.
“Leadership changes at the FTC and DOJ may alleviate some liquidity issues faced by portfolio companies, while adjustments at the SEC could reduce regulatory burdens for firms,” he elaborated. “The involvement of more VCs in governmental positions, actively engaging with Congress, presents a unique opportunity for the venture sphere to underscore the pivotal role of venture-backed companies in fostering economic growth and maintaining U.S. global competitiveness.”
Franklin also highlighted a tax proposal currently in Congress that could have meaningful implications for innovation, potentially reinstating the R&D tax credit and bolstering the overall ecosystem.
Top Candidates for Upcoming IPOs
Among the U.S. tech unicorns identified by PitchBook as likely candidates for IPOs in 2025, Anduril, the aerospace and defense startup founded by Oculus creator Palmer Luckey, is projected to have a remarkable 97% chance of going public.
Mythical Games, led by John Linden and noted for its Web3 gaming innovations, also shares this high likelihood of an IPO in the coming year.
Other notable unicorns on the list include Ayar Labs, Carbon, Databricks, EquipmentShare, Form Energy, GrubMarket, Mainspring, Sila, and StockX. Companies such as Impossible Foods, Groq, and SpaceX are similarly recognized with a 96% chance of successful public offerings.
In terms of funding trends, the most common deal size in 2024 was between $1 million and $5 million, involving 3,153 startups—a decrease from 3,781 in 2023 and 5,310 during the peak in 2021.
Source
venturebeat.com