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Labour has seen a notable decline since their sweeping victory last summer.
This drop underscores the significant challenge posed by Reform, which maintained a lead in voting intentions throughout February—a situation not witnessed by the main parties in over a century.
Could Reform take the next election?
Legally, the next general election is required to occur by August 21, 2029, but various factors may influence the political landscape as that date approaches.
Questions loom over Labour’s ability to regain momentum. Can the Conservatives recover from their historical defeat? Will Reform continue its rise, allowing Nigel Farage to potentially secure enough seats to lead as the next Prime Minister?
How was the data collected?
To explore these questions, data was gathered from multiple polls conducted by respected sources recognized by the British Polling Council.
These entities, such as YouGov, Opinium, and Redfield and Wilton, are known for their transparency and credibility.
Poll results from July 2024 onward have been adjusted based on previous performance metrics from these pollsters derived from the UK Election Data Vault, taking into account sample sizes. The trend analysis presented stems from a local regression of the data.
Party support breakdown
Following the last election, YouGov engaged over 35,000 voters to assess variations in support across diverse demographics.
On election day, right-leaning female voters were more hesitant than their male counterparts to support Reform over the Conservatives. However, recent surveys indicate an increase in female voter support for Reform.
The generational divide appears to be narrowing, with Reform’s appeal widening across all age groups, particularly among younger voters.
While Conservative support remains strong among older voters, Farage’s influence appears to be growing in this demographic as well. Conversely, Labour’s standing has seen a notable decline across all age groups.
Analysis of ballot allocations for national and regional parties reveals Labor’s declining share nationally, with current polls positioning Reform ahead in the Midlands and southern regions outside London.
In Scotland and Wales, Plaid Cymru and the SNP have also found opportunities to leverage the ruling party’s diminishing support.
How is Starmer performing as Prime Minister?
Rishi Sunak’s initial phase as Prime Minister was short-lived in terms of public favor. Last July, perceptions of him were balanced, with equal proportions viewing him positively and negatively, making him one of the more favored party leaders at that point.
However, perceptions shifted quickly, and by October, he was viewed more unfavorably than the often-controversial Nigel Farage.
What seats could Reform capture in an election?
The first-past-the-post electoral system has historically created discrepancies between national vote share and actual representation within the Commons. The 2024 election was notably the most skewed election in history in terms of this disparity.
Forecasting the outcomes of all 650 constituencies presents a significant challenge. Recent practices in polling have led to the adoption of MRPs—Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification methodologies.
These techniques merge large-scale polls, generally exceeding 10,000 respondents, with demographic data from local populations, encompassing factors like gender, age, education, and previous voting behaviors.
What is the reliability of the polls?
Every poll is accompanied by a margin of error. Although polling organizations aim for representative samples and adjust results to reflect national demographics, some uncertainty is inherent.
Typically, it’s anticipated that the actual standings of a poll will fall within a 2-point range of the published figures.
Different pollsters may adopt distinct approaches to articulating voting intentions; variations in question phrasing and handling of “don’t know” responses can affect results.
Research indicates that compiling a “poll of polls” can reduce biases that may arise from individual polling entities.
Source
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