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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Joe Biden in Paris, France, on June 7, 2024, as Ukraine continues to resist the aggressive invasion from Russia, a conflict that is now nearing its third year.
The ongoing war, which began on February 24, 2022, has seen a deterioration in Ukraine’s relationship with the United States, its primary military supporter. Since the beginning of the war, the dynamics have shifted drastically, particularly following the inauguration of former President Donald Trump.
Currently, the possibility of increased U.S. military support for Ukraine appears dim. There is rising concern that a peace agreement, potentially unfavorable to Ukraine, could emerge, requiring concessions of territory to Russia. The outlook for U.S. assistance in any future peacekeeping efforts has also diminished, leaving Ukraine feeling increasingly isolated after years of fierce resistance.
Andrius Tursa, a consultant for Eastern European affairs at Teneo, expressed skepticism about ongoing ceasefire negotiations, stating that the recent discussions between U.S. and Russian officials did not inspire hope for Ukraine’s prospects. He noted that Washington seemed inclined to entertain several demands from Russia that could jeopardize Ukraine’s long-term security, creating anxiety about a potential ceasefire that may not serve Ukraine’s interests well. The ongoing criticism from Trump towards Zelenskyy is reportedly contributing to a rise in anti-U.S. sentiments within Ukraine, complicating Transatlantic relations.
Deteriorating Relations
The week was marked by escalating tensions as U.S. officials reportedly resumed dialogues with their Russian counterparts without Ukraine’s involvement in initial peace discussions. This exclusion is seen as a significant snub at a time when U.S.-Ukraine relations are already strained. The situation further escalated when Zelenskyy labeled Trump a “dictator without elections,” criticizing the lack of democratic processes in Ukraine during wartime.
In response, Trump dismissed Zelenskyy’s statement, emphasizing the absence of elections in Ukraine since 2019. U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg’s visit to Kyiv raised eyebrows as he failed to be part of high-profile talks between Russian and U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia earlier in the week. Critics questioned the effectiveness of Kellogg’s meeting, particularly after he canceled a planned press conference following discussions.
Last week’s events took an unexpected turn when Trump announced his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, further complicating relations with European allies. His comments dismissed the feasibility of Ukraine’s NATO membership and suggested that regaining territory lost to Russia, particularly Crimea, was unrealistic. Trump’s remarks, supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, indicated that the U.S. would not contribute troops to any future peacekeeping missions, placing the onus on European nations to assume responsibility.
Observers of the geopolitical landscape have been critical of Washington’s strategy, arguing that U.S. concessions to Russia appeared premature and detrimental to Ukraine’s negotiating power. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, highlighted that Moscow had not reciprocated with concessions, potentially empowering Russia to demand more in future discussions.
Putin’s Assessment of the Situation
As tensions rise, Russia’s perception of the rift between the U.S. and Ukraine appears to be one of satisfaction. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov remarked that Ukraine depends on foreign donations for support and avoids accountability. Meanwhile, Putin has publicly expressed positive sentiments regarding the recent negotiations with the U.S., stating that the interactions were constructive and free from bias.
Putin’s commendations of Trump’s approach were met with criticism from European leaders, who felt sidelined in discussions that significantly affect the future of Ukraine. The Russian president’s assertion that Trump exhibited “restraint” amid what he described as overreactions from Europe underscores the ongoing tension and complexity of international relations concerning the Ukraine conflict.
As Ukraine braces itself for the possible outcomes of this prolonged war, it faces immense challenges, both human and economic, with damage estimates reaching up to $500 billion. Despite these adversities, Zelenskyy remains resolute in finding a path to peace that ensures Ukraine’s sovereignty and secures a future free from Russian aggression. He emphasized the necessity of a collective effort with international partners to achieve lasting peace, stating, “I am confident that we will end it, and with lasting peace. And in such a way that Russia will never be able to invade Ukraine again.”
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