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DES MOINES, Iowa — The political landscape in Iowa has undergone significant changes since 2010, the year Kim Reynolds first entered statewide office.
At that time, Reynolds ran as the Republican lieutenant governor nominee alongside Terry Branstad, who was then the governor. The political atmosphere was markedly different, with Barack Obama in the White House and a significant proportion of Iowans backing his presidency just two years prior.
Iowa’s representation in Congress was politically divided, while the Democratic Party maintained majorities in both chambers of the Iowa legislature. Additionally, the reality television star Donald Trump was still a popular show host rather than a political figure.
Reynolds recently made a surprising announcement about stepping back from seeking a third term as governor, creating a buzz in Des Moines regarding who might enter the upcoming primary race—the first for Iowa Republicans since 2010.
This move sparked new hope among Democrats, who have faced years of continuous Republican control. Opportunities for Democratic candidates may hinge on public sentiment towards the Trump administration, particularly during a midterm election.
The emergence of a strong Democratic candidate is crucial, along with financial backing. Rob Sand, Iowa’s State Auditor and the only elected Democrat statewide, has yet to declare his intentions for the governor’s race but has secured $8 million in campaign contributions, primarily from his family.
In the wake of Reynolds’ announcement, several Republicans are contemplating their political futures. Notable figures considering a bid for governor include Attorney General Brenna Bird, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, House Speaker Pat Grassley, and Rep. Bobby Kaufmann.
Reynolds made history as Iowa’s first female governor during a political epoch that included Trump’s transition from reality television to a successful presidential campaign. She was subsequently elected to a full term in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, overseeing a pronounced shift to the right in Iowa’s political dynamics.
Having served nearly a decade without term limits, Reynolds’ decision to not pursue another term opens the door for a political shake-up in Iowa during the midterm elections.
David Oman, a former chief of staff for Republican governors, emphasized the significance of this shift, noting the importance of established candidates in a state where incumbents usually hold office for extended periods. “This is your time to act,” he remarked about the ripe opportunity for potential candidates.
In her announcement on April 11, Reynolds highlighted the foundation of “strong conservative leadership” in the state, indicating that many Republican officials she has supported are poised to step into the fray.
This upcoming race will mark the first time in over a decade that Iowa’s gubernatorial seat is open, allowing various voices to present their visions for the state’s future.
As the political landscape evolves, questions persist around Trump’s involvement in the race. The former president has a history of endorsing gubernatorial candidates, with a track record suggesting that his backing often bolsters candidate momentum.
The outcome of the primary, particularly with or without Trump’s endorsement, could have significant repercussions for candidates and the overall political climate, potentially influencing the 2026 election. Observers from the Democratic Governors Association have pointed out that this new dynamic could reshape electoral prospects against traditionally heavy Republican competition.
As political strategists analyze the situation, it has become clear that open Republican primaries can yield unexpected results, and the possibility of flawed candidates winning can create opportunities for Democratic gains in the general election.
The implications of this election cycle underscore the need for both parties to carefully navigate the shifting tides of political sentiment as they prepare for the upcoming contests.
Maya Sweedler contributed from Washington.
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abcnews.go.com