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Ukraine Faces Significant Territorial Losses Amid Ongoing Conflict

In a troubling trend for Ukrainian forces, November 2023 marked the most significant loss of territory since September 2022, with Russian troops capturing an area equivalent to New York City. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the recent territorial gains for Russia have escalated as they took control of approximately 1,202 square kilometers during the month.

The full-scale invasion by Russia, which began in February 2022, initially allowed Russian forces to advance, but Ukrainian defenders managed to push back through effective counteroffensives. Throughout the remainder of last year, the conflict reached a relative stalemate. However, data from the ISW indicates that Russian forces captured a total of 2,233 square kilometers in 2023, and the early months of 2024 have seen an even larger accumulation, with around 2,656 square kilometers reported.

Despite the loss in November, analysts suggest that a significant portion of the territory captured by Russia comprises rural areas, which may lack substantial strategic value. Major cities remain largely intact, and key transportation routes have not faced significant disruptions.

As of 30 November 2024, Russian control over Ukrainian territory increased from 17.4% to 17.9%. A notable area of focus for Russian advances has been Donetsk, where they have gained approximately 1,804 square kilometers this year, with 1,006 square kilometers lost in just November.

Strategic Gains in Donetsk

The advances in Donetsk represent the most significant territorial achievements for Russian forces in the region since May 2022. The town of Vuhledar, a strategic stronghold in southern Donetsk, was captured by Russian forces in October after enduring persistent assaults. Furthermore, the push towards Pokrovsk, a key military target, has seen the occupation of multiple surrounding towns, including Novohrodivka, a settlement that housed around 15,000 people before the conflict escalated.

In the northern front, towns such as Pivnichne and Zalizne have come under Russian control as forces push closer to Toretsk. However, the ongoing conflict has also seen territorial losses for Ukraine in regions such as Luhansk and Kharkiv. In Luhansk, Russian troops secured 350 square kilometers this year, bringing their control of the region to approximately 98.6% by the end of November. In Kharkiv, approximately 392 square kilometers have been lost, and recent military engagements in Kupiansk reflect a troubling resurgence of conflict in an area previously reclaimed by Ukrainian forces.

Chart showing how Russia made its largest advances in two years in October 2024

The Nature of Territorial Gains

Mapping the land acquired by Russian forces over the past year reveals a pattern where most of the seized territory is agricultural land, lacking significant urban centers or infrastructure. In total, since November of the previous year, Russian forces have taken control of 29 villages and towns with pre-war populations exceeding 1,000, the majority of which are located in Donetsk.

George Barros, an ISW analyst, noted that while Ukraine is expected to lose more territory, the type of land being captured by Russia warrants scrutiny. Barros emphasized that despite Russia targeting significant objectives like Vuhledar and Avdiivka, they have not fundamentally disrupted Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. He cautioned that Russia’s attrition, with monthly troop losses estimated between 30,000 to 50,000, is unsustainable in the long term.

Looking Ahead: The State of Ukrainian Forces

Dr. Marina Miron from King’s College London pointed out that Russia aims to exhaust Ukrainian military resources through persistent offensives. She warned of potential front-line collapses, particularly in the areas south of Vuhledar, and predicted that the conflict might reach a ceasefire stage by 2025, albeit with Ukraine at a disadvantage.

Dr. Miron highlighted the critical reliance of Ukraine on Western support, which appears to be waning. She also noted issues of morale within the Ukrainian armed forces, attributing this to the grueling nature of recent battles like those in Bakhmut, and pointed out challenges in troop recruitment.

As the landscape of control shifts, the complexity of military engagements becomes increasingly evident. The ongoing territorial conflict showcases not only the strategic maneuvers of both sides but also the dire implications for the local populations caught in the crossfire.

Chart showing how Russia’s October gains came mainly in Donetsk

The data utilized in this assessment is derived from the ISW’s consistent monitoring of territorial control and engagements reported on a daily basis, thereby reflecting the evolving situation on the ground accurately.

Source
www.theguardian.com