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Strategic Gamble at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix: A Missed Opportunity for Tsunoda

During the opening laps of the Formula 1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, a pivotal moment arose after the deployment of the safety car. Three drivers—Esteban Ocon, Gabriel Bortoleto, and Jack Doohan—took the opportunity to switch to hard tires in a bold strategic maneuver. Starting on medium tires, they aimed to complete the race without needing to pit again, relying on the performance of the hard tires as the race progressed.

Despite making this risky call, the strategy did not yield significant benefits for the trio. While they gained positions during the shuffle of pit stops, they ultimately fell back in the standings due to inferior tire performance compared to those who opted for later stops. Ocon finished in 14th place, while Doohan, with fresher tires, managed to surpass Bortoleto for the 18th spot towards the end of the race.

This scenario invites speculation about what might have happened if Yuki Tsunoda, who restarted after an early collision with Pierre Gasly at Turn 4, had also chosen the same tire strategy. If unharmed, could he have maneuvered his way into points territory?

To explore this “what if,” we consider the tire degradation patterns and potential lap times. By examining the previous race data of Ocon and Bortoleto, we can create a hypothetical best-case scenario. We position Tsunoda at the back of the field after the safety car period and start tracking from the fourth lap.

In analyzing Tsunoda’s potential race pace relative to the two drivers who switched to hard tires, we note that his performance (clocked at 100.838%) was slightly better than Bortoleto’s (approximately 101.932%). Notably, during laps 21 to 27, Bortoleto lost time to drivers who had pitted, while Ocon also experienced some time loss but not to the same extent. This information helps create a conservative estimate of Tsunoda’s performance, incorporating the likelihood of being challenged by drivers on fresher rubber.

To accurately position Tsunoda in relation to the pack, we factor in the time lost during the safety car period, ensuring he starts from the appropriate position on the track. Given that Bortoleto was initially half a second behind Ocon at the restart, we apply a similar gap when calculating Tsunoda’s time.

As Tsunoda starts to acclimate to the hard tires, his initial laps clock in at 1:37.128 and then 1:35.791. Gradually, he finds his rhythm, landing consistently in the 1:34 range, and hitting high 1:33s by lap 33. Although this pace leaves him about a second per lap slower than Verstappen, who had fresh tires, Tsunoda still manages to compete effectively despite some inevitable laps in the 1:34 range as tire degradation kicks in.

The analysis indicates that, under optimal conditions, Tsunoda could have finished the race in eighth place, crossing the line at 1:21:50.586, positioned ahead of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon but trailing Lewis Hamilton by approximately five seconds. However, it’s important to note that this forecast is rather optimistic, given the complexities of tire management and racing dynamics involved.

This hypothetical scenario illustrates that, had Tsunoda avoided significant damage, he might have been able to salvage points with a composed drive on hard tires. With a potential 25-second gap between Hamilton and Sainz at the race’s conclusion, achieving a favorable outcome, even amidst traffic, appears plausible.

While such a strategy would not have transformed a lower-tier finish into a significantly better result, it underscores how tactical decisions can influence race outcomes. For a driver like Tsunoda, navigating early race challenges with an unconventional strategy may have provided a path to a valuable points finish.

Source
www.autosport.com