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TAMPA, Fla. – In the wake of Hurricane Helene, which recently battered Florida’s Big Bend region, the impending threat from Milton looms over the state. With its unique coastline, West Central Florida could experience some of the most severe impacts from this new storm system, potentially marking the worst hurricane preparedness challenge in over a century.
The recent battering from hurricanes Helene, Debby, Ian, and Idalia has left the region weary and on edge. Experts from the FOX Forecast Center emphasize that Milton’s track is particularly concerning due to its angle of approach, which coincides with the patterns that emergency management officials have long predicted might lead to significant storm surge threats.
During the impact of Helene, coastal communities south of the Big Bend saw a storm surge averaging between 5-8 feet. This surge was relatively mild compared to what could be expected from Milton, largely because of the wind conditions and distance from the hurricane’s center.
The potential trajectory of a hurricane making landfall over or just north of the Tampa-Sarasota area suggests that significantly higher storm surge levels could occur than those previously witnessed in past storms.
“The West Coast of Florida is incredibly susceptible to storm surge. Even tropical storms can dangerously elevate Gulf water levels, let alone a powerful hurricane. Residents across Central and South Florida must stay updated, as conditions are evolving rapidly,” stated FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.
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The local geography indicates that, following the worst-case scenarios, a water level increase exceeding 9 feet could occur with a major hurricane impact in the metro area.
Variations in the storm’s path, whether drifting north or south, could drastically shift the storm’s impact, something many Floridians have inadvertently learned from recent experiences.
For example, Hurricanes Idalia and Helene both struck approximately 130 miles north of Tampa, generating storm surges of 3-8 feet in the metro area due to southerly flow influences. In contrast, Hurricane Ian’s 2022 landfall near Fort Myers caused a change in water dynamics, resulting in a negative storm surge in Tampa Bay that saw water levels fall between 5 and 8 feet.
Residents were even seen traversing the exposed lakebed, though such actions were ill-advised given the impending storm.
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As preparations for Milton continue, the specific effects remain unclear until the storm fully passes through Florida. Emergency managers have long prepared for the threats of such storms.
In 2009, the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council initiated an exercise dubbed “Project Phoenix,” which envisioned the consequences of a direct hit from a Category 5 hurricane.
This hypothetical scenario predicted a storm surge of around 40 feet along the coastline, with downtown Tampa potentially experiencing water rises of 10-15 feet. The anticipated damage costs were astronomical, estimated in the hundreds of billions, which would render such an event the most expensive in U.S. history if realized.
While it is unlikely that Milton would escalate to Category 5 levels, historical context is notable. In 1921, a Category 3 storm made landfall north of Tampa.
This hurricane originated in the Caribbean and impacted Tarpon Springs with winds nearing 120 mph. According to the National Weather Service, the resulting storm surge was about 11 feet, with tragically only eight reported fatalities. It is crucial to note that during this time, the metro area’s population was just over 100,000, starkly contrasted by today’s estimates exceeding 3 million.
In the lengthy history of hurricane record-keeping, Tampa has faced only two major direct hits: the 1921 storm and another Category 4 in 1848.
Original article source: West Central Florida faces greatest hurricane threat in more than 100 years
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