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Uncertainty Surrounds Russia’s Military Presence in Syria Following Regime Collapse
The recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria has cast doubt on the future of Russia’s military operations in the country. For years, Russia maintained a strategic military presence at two important bases, but the latest developments have raised questions about its ongoing role.
Recent satellite imagery obtained from Maxar Technologies indicates that while Russian aircraft remain stationed at the Khmeimim airbase, Moscow’s warships have disappeared from the nearby naval facility located in Tartus. This change comes after rebel factions captured Damascus, effectively ousting long-time ruler Bashar Assad within a matter of days, which forced Assad to seek refuge in Moscow.
Russia has heavily relied on its bases in Syria to project military power in the region, and any loss of these facilities would be a significant blow, especially considering its ongoing military endeavors in Ukraine. The Tartus naval base, which serves as Russia’s main overseas naval facility, is crucial for providing access to a warm-water port, while the Khmeimim airbase is vital for logistics and troop movements in Africa.
Newly captured satellite images show active military operations at the Khmeimim airbase, including the presence of aircraft and helicopters, alongside significant activity at the adjacent Bassel Al-Assad International Airport. However, the status of Russian assets and whether they will maintain their positions at the Khmeimim base remains unclear.
Imagery from earlier this week has confirmed the absence of Russian naval vessels at Tartus, with at least two frigates observed several miles off the coast. Reports indicated that by Monday, five Russian vessels—including three frigates and two replenishment oilers—had departed the facility, with no signs of their return by the following day. The reasons for their absence could relate to safety protocols amid the evolving political situation in Syria, rather than a full-scale evacuation.
Amid these developments, questions abound regarding Russia’s future control over the Khmeimim and Tartus bases. Despite the turbulence in Syrian leadership, the Russian defense ministry has yet to communicate any significant changes in its military posture.
Ukraine’s military intelligence has suggested that Russia is withdrawing from its bases, although this has not been independently confirmed. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has communicated efforts to ensure the security of its installations through discussions with the new Syrian authorities as the landscape of leadership evolves. Reports indicate that rebel forces are now in control of the region surrounding these critical facilities.
The inability of Russia to maintain access to these bases may have serious repercussions for its influence in the region. Insights from analysts at the Institute for the Study of War warn that the loss of Russian military infrastructure in Syria could dramatically affect Moscow’s capacity to project power in the Mediterranean, threaten NATO’s southern flank, and conduct operations in Africa.
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As these events unfold, the international community remains attentive to the shifts in power dynamics within Syria and their implications for global security.
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