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As the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs prepare to kick off at Atlanta Motor Speedway, it’s a fitting moment to look ahead and make some predictions about the championship outcome. Historically, identifying the eventual champion before the playoffs start has proven to be a challenging task, as seen with Ryan Blaney’s surprising victory last year and Joey Logano’s unexpected win in 2022. With that in mind, we dive into analysis for all 16 contenders, evaluating their chances in each playoff round.
OUT in the Round of 16
Harrison Burton: Although he pulled off a remarkable win at Daytona, Burton still finds himself at the bottom of the points standings among full-time drivers prior to that race. The upcoming Atlanta race might offer a glimmer of hope, but his performance in the subsequent races could ultimately hinder his advancement.
Harrison Burton, Wood Brothers Racing, DEX Imaging Ford Mustang
Chase Briscoe: Known for his surprise victory at the Southern 500, Briscoe could potentially dazzle fans once again. However, the statistics don’t favor him; outside of his Darlington prowess, he has seen limited success with just one top-five finish this season. Atlanta will be crucial, as he’ll need flawless performances at both Atlanta and on road courses to progress.
Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing, Mahindra Compact Tractors Ford Mustang
Austin Cindric: Cindric’s season has been rocky, and aside from an unexpected showing at Gateway, he has struggled to keep pace. His average finish ranks among the lowest in the playoffs, and without significant improvement, it’s unlikely he’ll lead Team Penske to another championship.
Austin Cindric, Team Penske, Menards/Quaker State Ford Mustang
Joey Logano: Logano’s recent victory at Nashville came during a race characterized by misfortunes experienced by other drivers, making his season somewhat underwhelming overall. Faced with his worst average finish since 2011, Logano’s hopes to claim a third Cup title appear slim.
Joey Logano, Team Penske, Autotrader Ford Mustang
OUT in the Round of 12
Daniel Suarez: Suarez enters the playoffs with a recent win at Atlanta under his belt and a reputation as a strong road racer. However, despite his talents, Trackhouse Racing’s inconsistent season raises doubts about his ability to progress past the Round of 12 without another standout performance.
Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing, Quaker State Chevrolet Camaro
Alex Bowman: Bowman’s performance has been solid but nowhere near that of his Hendrick Motorsports teammates. While he boasts a win in Chicago, he has struggled with a series of lower finishes. His team’s strength may facilitate his progress into the Round of 12, but further advancement seems unlikely.
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports, Ally Chevrolet Camaro
Ty Gibbs: As a newcomer to the playoffs, Gibbs has largely relied on consistency to qualify, though he struggles to match the performance of his more seasoned teammates. This method may not carry him much further, especially against more seasoned drivers eager to escalate their performances.
Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing, He Gets Us Toyota Camry
William Byron: With an excellent start to the season that included three wins, Byron’s trajectory has leveled off dramatically. His streak of inconsistent finishes signals challenges ahead, and the history of Daytona 500 winners failing to secure the championship later looms large.
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports, Relay Payments Chevrolet Camaro
OUT in the Round of 8
Brad Keselowski: The RFK Racing driver is predicted to clinch a win at Talladega, which might be crucial to reach this round. However, facing off against the top competitors in the Round of 8 will likely prove too daunting without a superior vehicle.
Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing, King’s Hawaiian Ford Mustang
Chase Elliott: With a reputation for consistency, Elliott’s season has been highlighted by only one standout victory. Unfortunately, consistency may not be sufficient to carry him through the fierce competition of the Round of 8.
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports, NAPA/Children’s Chevrolet Camaro
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex’s ongoing struggles with bad luck and inconsistency may derail his postseason ambitions. While a victory might enable him to reach this stage, the journey likely comes to an end here.
Martin Truex Jr., Joe Gibbs Racing, Auto-Owners Insurance Toyota Camry
Ryan Blaney: The absence of consecutive champions in this playoff format might continue, marking Blaney’s likely exit in the Round of 8. While he has shown speed, the persistent dominance of other contenders throughout the season diminishes his chances.
Ryan Blaney, Team Penske, Dent Wizard Ford Mustang
Championship 4
Kyle Larson: An obvious frontrunner, Larson has been a formidable competitor throughout the season, demonstrating superior race wins and endurance. Though he seems primed for the Championship 4, there are concerns about his ability to finish on top.
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro
Denny Hamlin: After narrowly missing the Championship 4 in previous years, Hamlin is poised to succeed this time. However, lingering challenges will continue to thwart his chances for victory, suggesting a familiar narrative in his pursuit of the title.
Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, Mavis Tire Toyota Camry
Tyler Reddick: As a dominant driver, Reddick’s combination with Hamlin and the other Toyota drivers complicates Larson’s path to victory. Having proven himself throughout the season, Reddick’s strengths will be put to the test as he vies for the championship in Phoenix.
Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, Jordan Brand Toyota Camry
CHAMPION – Christopher Bell: Bell’s consistent performance and skill in critical races elevate him within the top tier. Coupled with a strong history in Round of 8 races, Bell emerges as a viable candidate for the championship, particularly after securing a win earlier in the season at Phoenix.
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, Rheem Toyota Camry
Source
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