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This combination of pictures created on April 09, 2025 shows U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff after a meeting with Russian officials at Diriyah Palace, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18, 2025 (L); and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking to AFP during an interview at the Iranian consulate in Jeddah on March 7, 2025.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Recent discussions between the United States and Iran concerning a potential revival of the nuclear agreement have begun with a sense of optimism, according to representatives from both nations, despite ongoing disagreements and unclear terms on each side’s expectations.
During the talks, U.S. and Iranian delegates expressed constructive communication. The two nations have agreed to continue negotiations next week in Rome, with Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry characterizing Saturday’s discussions as occurring within a “constructive atmosphere and based on mutual respect.”
This situation marks a notable contrast to the Biden administration’s previous initiatives to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. As conditions have shifted dramatically, the U.S. now holds more advantageous positions, while Iran appears increasingly fragile and vulnerable.
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst focused on Iran and energy at Eurasia Group, noted that the current economic plight has heightened Iran’s urgency for a resolution. “Iran is feeling pressure as their economy suffers, and they are experiencing internal dissent,” Brew remarked. “This suggests they may prefer to secure a deal sooner rather than later, especially as they see an opportunity with the Trump administration.”
Brew also highlighted the difference in political constraints between the Biden and Trump administrations, indicating that President Biden faces criticism regarding any perceived lenience toward Iran. In contrast, Trump is already framed as a hardliner and has reinstated “maximum pressure” sanctions upon taking office.
Since the U.S. exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, Iran’s economic situation has deteriorated significantly. The nation has faced increasing protests, a plummeting currency, and a rising cost of living. The situation worsened further when Iran lost its key regional ally last year amid the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Additionally, Israel launched successful operations targeting senior Hezbollah leaders.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who previously opposed negotiations with the U.S., appears to have shifted his stance, with senior Iranian officials reportedly working to persuade him that engaging in talks is critical for the regime’s stability.
Examining the Nuclear Program
Trump has made clear his stance against a nuclear-armed Iran. The urgency of the situation has escalated as Iran has been enriching uranium to unprecedented levels since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, prompting numerous warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
A recent U.N. news release noted, “Iran remains the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching uranium to this level, raising significant concerns over potential weapons development.”
While Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes, its enrichment levels have reached 60% purity, well above the limit set forth in the 2015 agreement and within striking distance of the 90% threshold needed for weapons-grade purity.
Trump has repeatedly issued warnings about a possible military response if Iran fails to comply with U.S. standards. “I prefer an agreement with Iran on non-nuclear issues over military action,” he stated in a February interview.
Experts suggest that the pressure from the U.S. has played a role in encouraging Iran to engage in constructive discussions. Ryan Bohl, a senior analyst at the RANE Network, commented, “The Iranians appear eager to create a viable framework for negotiations that can prevent immediate military action that Trump has alluded to.” He further emphasized that a hint of relief could bolster the Iranian economy and enhance public sentiment toward the regime.
However, the exact terms of any prospective agreement are still under negotiation, and the upcoming dialogues will test the depth of disagreement between the two parties. A significant obstacle is Iran’s steadfast commitment to maintain its nuclear program—a non-negotiable red line for its leadership. Yet it is also possible that the Trump administration might exercise some flexibility as long as Iran does not advance toward weaponization.
Future negotiations will shed light on Trump’s specific demands, which have thus far been kept private. Nader Itayim, Mideast Gulf Editor at Argus Media, remarked, “The critical question will be whether the U.S. seeks to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program or simply ensure it isn’t weaponized.” He underscored Trump’s recent emphasis on preventing weaponization as a potential starting point for dialogue.
Despite the negotiations, significant distrust lingers between the two nations, especially among hardliners in the U.S. and Israel, who oppose any perceived leniency in talks. Recently, Trump indicated that Israel would take a leading role in any military response should Iran fail to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
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