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Strategic Choices at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix: A Look at Alternative Outcomes
During the opening laps of the Formula 1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, a safety car deployment prompted three drivers—Esteban Ocon, Gabriel Bortoleto, and Jack Doohan—to seize the opportunity for a bold tyre strategy. All three began the race on medium tyres but opted to switch to hard tyres immediately, hoping to complete the remainder of the race without an additional pit stop.
Ocon and Bortoleto committed to this strategy, while Doohan ultimately altered his approach with a pit stop on lap 32. While the initial gamble allowed them to gain positions during the pit cycle, their fortunes waned as those who delayed their stops reaped the benefits of superior tyre performance later in the race. Ocon ultimately finished the race in 14th place, while Doohan, leveraging fresher rubber, managed to pass Bortoleto for an 18th-place finish as the race drew to a close.
This scenario draws attention to a speculative situation involving Yuki Tsunoda, who, after an early clash with Pierre Gasly at Turn 4, might have fared better had he pursued the same strategy as Ocon, Bortoleto, and Doohan. An analysis of Tsunoda’s hypothetical performance on hard tyres raises the question: Could he have secured points?
To explore this, we begin by establishing a timeline based on Ocon and Bortoleto’s lap performance. Assuming Tsunoda resumed his race at the back of the pack after the restart, he would start tracking his lap times from the fourth lap. We will estimate a performance comparison between Tsunoda and a combined hypothetical profile based on data from the two drivers who implemented the early pit strategy, factoring in their performance from previous races. Tsunoda is noted at a pace of 100.838%, while Bortoleto’s estimated rate is at 101.932%. While these rates include varying performance conditions, they also account for potential delays caused by traffic in the field.
Examining their race data further reveals that between laps 21 and 27, Bortoleto experienced significant time loss due to overtaking maneuvers, an issue that also affected Ocon, though to a lesser extent. Maintaining these performance variances provides a clearer picture of Tsunoda’s potential challenges with traffic.
In constructing this scenario, we need to factor in the time under the safety car and account for any time Tsunoda might have needed to regain pace after the conflict at Turn 4. With Bortoleto restart positioned just half a second behind Ocon, we can estimate Tsunoda’s corresponding entry time into the race strategy. For his initial laps, we project times of 1m37.128s and 1m35.791s as he transitions to wearing in his hard tyres, before clocking consistent laps in the low 1m34s by lap 33. Despite still trailing significantly behind race leader Max Verstappen—who was running on newer hard tyres—Tsunoda’s lap times start to show consistency, although degradation begins to slow his pace towards the race’s conclusion.
Ultimately, our calculations suggest that had Tsunoda successfully employed this strategy, he might have crossed the line in 8th place with a finishing time of 1h21m50.586s, just ahead of competitors Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, and about five seconds behind Lewis Hamilton. This projection notably serves as an optimistic illustration of how minor strategic adjustments can yield changes in race outcomes, even within the confines of tyre degradation calculations accrued throughout the event.
While this alternative strategy would not have significantly elevated a frontrunner’s finishing position, it nevertheless highlights how a strategic manoeuvre following unexpected incidents could have salvaged a point-scoring opportunity for Tsunoda. Aiming for a respectable gap, like the 25 seconds observed between Hamilton and Sainz by the end of the race, might have been within reach had he navigated the traffic effectively.
In summary, while the actual outcomes of races are dictated by a myriad of factors, exploring various strategic pathways can provide valuable insights into the intricate decision-making processes involved in Formula 1.
In this article
Jake Boxall-Legge
Formula 1
Yuki Tsunoda
Red Bull Racing
Source
www.motorsport.com